California Dreaming
A recall election was held in California Tuesday, and unlike the case 18 years ago, the governor held on to his seat. But before too many on either side start making broad declarations regarding what it all means, let’s just look at some basic numbers.
64 percent voted to retain Gov. Gavin Newsom…but exit polls showed that barely a majority–55 percent–approved of the job he was doing in office. In other words, 9 percent don’t like him as governor, but held their noses and voted for him anyway. Why? Perhaps simply because he was a Democrat, and voting him out meant a Republican would take over. Or maybe it was because the leading challenger was Larry Elder, and they didn’t want him as governor.
For Newsom to declare victory and say it was a referendum on his work is like a guy born on third base and claims he hit a triple. He was far behind in the polls when the race was simply about his record; once Elder emerged as a challenger, Newsom turned it away from his record and used scare tactics about Trump Republicans, and that strategy led him to survive the challenge.
Understand that there are five million more registered Democrats than Republicans in California. A total of 46.5 percent of all registered voters in the Golden State are Democrats, compared with only 24.0 percent saying they are Republicans and 23.2 percent registered as “no party” voters. In other words, you’d have to get all the Republicans and “no party” voters together just to barely surpass the number of Democrats.
The last successful challenge in 2003 had Arnold Schwarzenegger taking over when Gray Davis was tossed out. Davis’ favorability rating was 26 percent, compared with Newsom’s 55 percent…Democrats split in 2003, but stayed united in 2021.
So if there are lessons to be learned…they’re probably limited to that state and this election, despite grand proclamations about “what the vote means” nationally. Which is usually the case, all politics being local and all.
