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    The pacesetters for national polls: 16 state polls to turn up heat before 2024 race

    Synopsis

    The assembly elections would set the pitch for the 2024 Lok Sabha battle as these states together have 246 Lok Sabha seats. This will also test the much-talked about opposition unity and the possible fight it can give the BJP.

    Parliament-ptiPTI
    Starting February next year, assembly elections will be held in 16 states over two years. Of the 16 states, BJP has direct stake in nine and alliance governments in three. The Congress has three states and TRS one. The assembly elections would set the pitch for the 2024 Lok Sabha battle as these states together have 246 Lok Sabha seats, reports Anshuman Kumar. For the BJP, the challenge is to maintain the winning streak, to repeat 2019 in 2024. This will also test the much-talked about opposition unity and the possible fight it can give the BJP.

    Uttar Pradesh
    UP is going to be the most watched out battle as no party has repeated a government in more than 25 years. Under Yogi Adityanath, the BJP is trying to change this and due to its ground presence, it looks to be currently ahead of the opposition. This is one state where the BJP has not experimented with a leadership change to beat anti-incumbency.

    The main opposition, Samajwadi Party, is also making this a prestige battle, and much would depend on whether it allies with other parties. The BSP is also trying to present itself as the main challenger to the BJP. The impact of the farmer movement would reflect on the election results.

    X FACTOR: RLD leader Jayant Chaudhary is regaining strength in West UP and how the SP and RLD alliance plays out, need to be watched out for.

    Uttarakhand
    Uttarakhand has been among the most volatile states politically. It saw three BJP chief ministers in a short span of time. BJP is playing on the popularity of PM Narendra Modi and central government schemes. Congress is eyeing a comeback under the leadership of Harish Rawat.
    Graph1ANI

    However, two Congress MLAs have recently joined the BJP. The state has sizable ex-army and Sikh votes. The Centre has appointed Lt General Gurmit Singh as the governor of the state.

    X FACTOR: AAP is trying to make inroads and it has announced Col Ajay Kothiyal as the CM candidate.

    Punjab
    To beat anti-incumbency, Congress removed Captain Amarinder Singh as CM only to make him revolt against the party. What looked like an easy battle for the Congress, has now become a struggle. With a new CM face, Congress is trying to put its house in order to ensure its victory. The BJP without any alliance is a non-entity currently. The two opposition parties -- AAP and SAD -- are working hard to gain ground. SAD has allied with the BSP.
    Graph2

    X FACTOR: The next move of Captain Amarinder Singh would be important to watch. Farmer movement started from the state. Farmers who form a crucial chunk of voters, could make or break any government.

    Goa
    BJP is eyeing a repeat in Goa while Congress and AAP are showing signs of improvement. The BJP has till now decided to go with Pramod Sawant as the party face despite murmurs in the party.

    Graph3
    Goa CM Pramod Sawant


    X FACTOR: The performance of AAP will be crucial for the BJP and Congress. A division of votes between Congress and AAP could be beneficial to the BJP

    Manipur
    The state is proving to be a challenge for the BJP under the leadership of N Biren Singh. However, the party expects to win the state. The challenge for Congress is to regain its foothold.

    X FACTOR: The performance of Naga People’s Front and other smaller parties needs to be watched out for.

    Himachal Pradesh
    The BJP looks ahead of its rival Congress. There are speculations of a leadership change by the BJP but, till now, Jairam Thakur has managed to hold on. Congress is recuperating post the demise of Virbhadra Singh, and the leadership issue is still a challenge.

    X FACTOR: There is a two-way fight, and much would depend on how the Congress presents a united face in the absence of Virbhadra Singh.

    Gujarat
    Gujarat is the second most important state for the BJP after UP. BJP has just reshuffled the entire cabinet, including the CM, to beat anti-incumbency. But the Congress is still without a leader and presence on the ground. AAP is hopeful to make an entry after winning the local bodies polls at some places in Surat.

    X FACTOR: The performance of AAP in urban pockets around Surat can dent into the BJP and Congress votes.

    Meghalaya
    With just two seats in 2018, BJP was able to beat Congress with 21 seats, and it formed an NDA government stitching an alliance with other smaller parties under the leadership of Conrad Sangma of National People’s Party. For Congress, it is a challenge to get a majority in the 60-member assembly. For BJP, the challenge is to improve its tally from two to a respectable number where it can have its own chief minister.

    X FACTOR: The smaller parties' performance will decide who will form the next government.

    Tripura
    BJP won Tripura for the first time in 2018. In recent times, the issue with the leadership of Biplab Kumar Dev had come up before the party, although the central leaders are silent on the subject. Winning Tripura again is a challenge for the BJP as a regional alliance, TIPRA, led by Pradyot Manikya Deb Barman, is making BJP’s task difficult. Trinamool is also strengthening the party in Tripura.

    X FACTOR: There's a possibility of an alliance between TIPRA and Trinamool, which could be a factor in the assembly polls.

    Nagaland
    The BJP was the kingmaker in the last elections with 12 seats in the 60-member assembly. BJP will manage to remain the major force and it could form the government.

    Karnataka
    This is another state, where BJP has rested an old and strong satrap Yediyurappa to promote a new leadership under Basavaraj Bommai. With the infighting among the leaders continuing, Karnataka is an open election for the BJP and Congress. The Congress is struggling to present a united face.

    X FACTOR: The impact of the stepping down of Yediyurappa on the Lingayat votebank needs to be watched out for.

    Madhya Pradesh
    BJP formed the government after the defection of Congress MLAs, led by Jyotiraditya Scindia. There is anti-incumbency. Whether current chief minister Shivraj Chouhan would remain the party's face or BJP would like to go with a new leader needs to be seen. Congress is in a fix on whether Kamal Nath would remain in the state or play a role in the party at the Centre.

    X FACTOR: The OBC and tribal votebank are being wooed by the BJP and Congress and they will play a crucial role.

    Rajasthan
    This is one state where both the ruling Congress and opposition BJP are trying to control internal rivalry within the party. Rajasthan never repeats a government but now it’s a neck-andneck fight between the two. The challenge for Congress is to give space to the ambitions of Sachin Pilot and take care of current CM Ashok Gehlot. In BJP, indifferences come up regularly between Vasundhara Raje and the current leadership.

    X FACTOR: The role of Pilot and Vasundhara is crucial for the Congress and BJP respectively.

    Chhattisgarh
    Congress is facing a leadership battle despite winning the state with a huge majority in 2018. If the infighting between CM Baghel and minister TS Singh Deo goes on for long, this could trouble the party. BJP is a strong opposition and is waiting for any opportunity to weaken the Congress.
    graph4

    X FACTOR: Factional fights within the Congress can change the political landscape.

    Telangana
    A two-term CM, KC Rao, has weakened but he is still ahead of the opposition. His need-based alliance with AIMIM helps him maintain the lead over other parties. BJP will present a challenge for him, as it has hopes after their performance in the Greater Hyderabad municipal polls. YS Sarmila, younger sister of Andhra Pradesh CM Jagan Mohan Reddy, is working hard to emerge as an alternative in Telangana.

    X FACTOR: The performance of BJP would be crucial in determining whether KCR will align with anti-BJP forces at a national level.

    Mizoram
    The recent Assam-Mizoram border clashes has created challenges for the BJP. Mizo National Front is part of BJP’s ambitious North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), which is headed by Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma. Mizoram is important for BJP’s northeast stronghold



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