Maharashtra: Monsoon retreat may skip normal date of October 5

PUNE: The monsoon is unlikely to begin withdrawing from North Maharashtra from the normal date of October 5, the latest extended range forecast from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicated.
As per IMD’s criteria, three conditions complete the withdrawal of the monsoon. These are cessation of rainfall activity over an area for five continuous days, establishment of an anticyclone in the lower troposphere, and considerable reduction in moisture content over the region.

Anupam Kashyapi, head of weather, IMD Pune, said more rain is in store for the state even in the first week of October, and so far it seems that the monsoon’s withdrawal from parts of Maharashtra may not begin till then.Normal dates for monsoon’s retreat from Mumbai and Pune are around October 8-9, respectively.
As per the latest extended range forecast models, the monsoon trough is very likely to be active and near normal, south of its position during most days of the week during September 30-October 6.
Kashyapi said as per the extended range forecast, south central Madhya Maharashtra is likely to get just near normal rain during September 30-October 6 period, while the rest of the state may get above normal rains.
IMD’s forecast for the next two weeks said, “A low pressure area is likely to form over central parts of the Bay of Bengal during the first half of the week from September 30 to October 6. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls are very likely over northwest and central India during most of the days of the week. Overall above normal rainfall activity is likely over the country during this period.”
In view of the expected synoptic systems during the next two weeks, conditions are not likely to be favourable for the monsoon to begin withdrawing from parts of northwest India before the September 30 to October 6 period.
Kashyapi said this withdrawal may begin only from the middle of September 30-October 6 period. Hence, it could naturally be delayed from Maharashtra too.