Marin needs to get ready for a building boom, the likes of which the county hasn’t seen for 50 or more years.
Thanks to Gov. Gavin Newsom and the state Legislature, Marin has a quota to build 14,405 residential units by 2031. That’s more than a 10% increase in housing.
The objective is to address California’s housing shortage and the Association of Bay Area Governments, a state-appointed regional planning body, has determined that the quota set for Marin is its fair share.
Not only has the state handed down ambitious quotas, but it has also passed laws that undermine local zoning.
State estimates on how many new housing units California needs are in the millions. The quotas have been set to help meet that need.
Most Marin municipalities have appealed those numbers, but most of those bids for lower quotas have been turned down. The others may receive similar decisions.
Critics of the top-down mandates argue that their cities are mostly built out and most open land that casual observers figure is potentially available for housing is either preserved as open space or parkland. Some 85% of Marin’s terrain is public open space and parkland.
Some other areas aren’t appropriate for more housing, served by narrow, winding hillside streets.
Supporters argue that in recent decades Marin has established planning restrictions and fostered an anti-growth political climate that has led to economic inequities and it becoming the most racially segregated county in the Bay Area.
The lead researcher of the University of California at Berkeley study of census tracts called Marin “a sea of White.”
Backers of the state quotas argue the new housing will help foster greater racial and economic equity.
Unfortunately, only half of quotas are for affordable housing, the kind of housing Marin really needs.
The quotas are green lights for developers. It remains to be seen how local municipalities strive to comply with the quotas while also enforcing reasonable fire and traffic safety restrictions.
Local officials are going to have to stop catering to the “Not in My Backyard” arguments from those who comfortably oppose nearby building proposals. They have sent more than a few developers packing up their blueprints and heading for more less-restrictive locales, most often beyond Marin’s boundaries.
These will be challenging times for our county. Much of the push coming from Sacramento has been in response to townships here and in other parts of the state where reputations of exclusionary planning practices endure.
Neighborhood groups that have mastered fighting development need to understand that Sacramento has rewritten the rules.
The concept of single-family neighborhoods has been redefined by the governor and lawmakers.
The tight control municipalities once held over local building has been eroded by Sacramento.
The next decade will tell how Sacramento’s edicts turn out, and whether local government can steer new development so that it is in the right locations, an appropriate size and complementary design.
For San Rafael and Novato, making the right use of opportunities such as the redevelopment of Northgate mall or the long-closed Fireman’s Fund campus, are critical for those municipalities to meet the state’s demands. Every town should look for possible opportunities to build workforce housing close to jobs, shopping, services and transit.
Building much-needed housing can no longer be just political lip service. The focus has to be on what’s possible.
Novato Councilwoman Pat Eklund, a local representative to ABAG, worries Sacramento’s boosting of municipalities’ housing quotas are “setting cities and counties up for failure.”
That fate should not be due to a lack of commitment and effort in seeking opportunities for building the housing Marin needs.
