NFL Week 6 player props to watch: Value could be found in WRs

Buffalo Bills free safety Jordan Poyer (21) dives for the ball thrown to New England Patriots' Jakobi Meyers (16) for a two point conversion during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 1, 2020, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (Adrian Kraus/AP)

We head into Week 6 with more data points and a better sense on where some teams have struggled to stop certain positions. Let’s hope some of those trends continue as we look to exploit those weaknesses and find some value in the player prop market. I’ve done the homework for you here, and hopefully can help you out if you plan on placing a wager on a player prop or two.

Here are some players I’ve identified that could have a nice day on Sunday.

Record to date for the 2021 NFL season: 8-7 (-0.65 units)

Editor’s note: All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction, and are current as of the time of publication.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Detroit Lions 1 p.m. EST

Wager to watch: WR Ja'Marr Chase total receiving yards (Over 77.5 -120, Under 77.5 -120)

The winless Lions look for their first win under head coach Dan Campbell as they host the Bengals at Ford Field. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is coming off an overtime loss to the Packers where rookie Ja'Marr Chase shined. Let’s hope that will once again be the case in the Motor City on Sunday.

Chase is fresh off his best game of his young career against Green Bay last week with a career-high six receptions for 159 yards on 10 targets. The 21-year-old has emerged as the Bengals' No. 1 receiver and has racked up four touchdown catches of 30-plus yards already this season.

Chase is averaging 4.6 receptions per game on seven targets so far in 2021. The advanced metrics on the rookie wide receiver have been terrific. He’s averaging 111.8 air yards per game, 2.24 air yards per snap and his average depth of target is 16.0 yards. If Detroit has any plans on shutting down the fifth overall pick from the 2021 NFL draft, it won’t be a good idea to play man coverage. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has a perfect QB rating of 158.3 when targeting Chase in man coverage.

The Lions, meanwhile, have been exposed by wide outs so far in 2021. Detroit’s pass defence has yielded 11.24 yards per target to WRs which ranks dead last in the NFL. The Lions have also surrendered 922 receiving yards to WRs which is 21st in the NFL. Detroit is also giving up 251.6 passing yards per game this season.

Pick: Until teams can prove they can shut down Chase’s explosiveness, I think there is value here against a banged-up Lions secondary that struggles against WRs. Take the receiving total of 77.5 to go OVER at -120.

Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots 4:25 p.m. EST

Wager to watch: WR Jakobi Meyers total receiving yards (Over 61.5 -120, Under 61.5 -120)

The Cowboys visit Foxborough looking for their fifth straight win while Patriots look for their second straight victory after a hard-fought win in Houston last week against the lowly Texans. We want to focus on whether Jakobi Meyers can expose a suspect Dallas secondary for the second time in three seasons.

Meyers had four receptions on five targets for 56 yards in New England’s 25-22 win over the Texans in Houston last Sunday. Meyers has been a reliable pass catcher for the Patriots this season by having at least one reception of more than 20 yards in every game this season and has produced at least 50 receiving yards in each of his past three games. The 24-year-old wide receiver has 31 receptions this season for 302 yards on 46 targets (9.2 per game) and is averaging 6.6 yards per target. Meyers is getting 24.6 per cent of the Patriots’ team targets and his average depth of target is 8.6 yards. New England’s number-one wide receiver has been on the field for 309 of the 328 total snaps on offence so far this season.

The Cowboys continue to struggle to stop receivers this season as well. Dallas has allowed 1058 yards to wide receivers this season, which ranks 28th in the NFL. The Cowboys have also given up 72 completions (T-23rd) and 8.74 yards per target (T-21st) to wide receivers in 2021. Dallas also had a had time slowing down Meyers in Week 12 in 2019, who had four catches for 74 yards on nine targets.

Pick: The Patriots could be playing catch-up against the high-powered Cowboys offence which means more work for Meyers. I really like this spot against a Dallas team that has a hard time against the pass. I’m taking the total of 61.5 receiving yards to go OVER here at -120.

Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers 8:20 p.m. EST

Wager to watch: RB Najee Harris total rushing yards (Over 74.5 -120, Under 74.5 -120)

The Seahawks begin life without Russell Wilson when they take on the Steelers at Heinz Field in primetime. Geno Smith will start at QB for Seattle but we want to take a closer look at Pittsburgh rookie running back Najee Harris and his total rushing yards prop.

Harris carried the ball 23 times for 122 yards against the Broncos last week while dealing with cramps. That game against Denver was also the first time he had over 20-plus carries in a game in his brief career. Harris is getting 15.60 carries per game and has averaged 61.40 rushing yards per game so far this season. The 23-year-old running back has averaged a solid 2.6 yards after contact and has been on the field for 86.89 per cent of Pittsburgh’s snaps on offence.

The Seahawks haven’t been able to slow down the run game through five weeks. Seattle has coughed up 633 rushing yards to running backs this season which ranks 30th in the NFL. The Seahawks have also relinquished 4.40 yards per carry to running backs this season which ranks 21st in the league. It’s really no secret on how to attack Seattle: pound the football. The Seahawks have the league’s 31st run defence by giving up 145.2 yards per game and they’ve allowed 144 rushing attempts to RBs which is the second-most in the NFL.

Pick: I think the game plan for the Steelers is simple, pound the porous Seahawks run defence. Seattle inability to stop the run and Harris’ workload makes me think there is a ton of value on taking the OVER of 74.5 yards here at -120.

When submitting content, please abide by our  submission guidelines, and avoid posting profanity, personal attacks or harassment. Should you violate our submissions guidelines, we reserve the right to remove your comments and block your account. Sportsnet reserves the right to close a story’s comment section at any time.
We use cookies to improve your experience. Learn More or change your cookie preferences. By continuing to use this site, you agree to the use of cookies.
close