Bypolls: Opposition manages more than talking points in run-up to state polls

The opposition parties, though mostly disengaged, on Tuesday managed to muffle the BJP's Diwali blitz by scoring some impressive victories against the saffron party, including two of the three Lok Sabha seats and among the 29 assembly byelections across 13 states.
The fact that these bypolls were held in the backdrop of the spiralling fuel prices, inflation, farmers' protests, unemployment worries and India's dip in the hunger index that confront the second Modi regime's second half - and also amid the BJP refreshing its 'nationalist' and 'national security' planks by citing the Taliban and J&K developments - makes results morale boosting for both sides ahead of next year's polls in five states.

DIDIGIRI CONTINUES:
Trinamool winning all the four assembly bypolls in West Bengal, including from two sitting BJP seats, meant Mamata Banerjee's party cementing its image as the champion electoral slayer of the BJP.

CONG GETS HIMALAYAN WINDS:
In direct BJP vs Congress bouts, the Congress emerged on top in Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan with clean sweeps while the saffron party displayed dominance in MP and Assam. The BJP getting routed in three sitting seats - Mandi LS seat and Fatehpur and Jubbal-Kotkhai sitting assembly segments - besides losing again in the Congress' Arki assembly seat not only defied the conventional wisdom of the ruling party maintaining its winning streak in the bypolls but also provides the Congress a moral booster and the BJP with a panic attack in the run-up to the 2022-end assembly polls in the Himalayan state. CM Jai Ram Thakur should be worried whether he can complete the term or will join those CMs who had been called back to the pavilion before the polls.

Besides BJP's internal issues in Mandi involving the supporters of senior leader Shanta Kumar and family members of the late Sukh Ram, the widow of Congress' five-term CM, the late Virbhadra Singh, Pratibha Singh gallantly coming down from the family's Shimla turf to ride on the goodwill of her late husband to fight and win the Mandi LS seat - besides Congress retaining Singh's sitting seat - could add a dimension to the HP Congress' search for leadership in post-Virbhadra era where his wife-son duo are now working to establish their electoral popularity and utility.

GEHLOT CONSOLIDATES:
The ruling Congress cementing its position in Rajasthan by wresting the Dhariawad assembly seat from the BJP and retaining Vallabhnagar seat meant further consolidation by CM Ashok Gehlot vis-a-vis Sachin Pilot, particularly in the manoeuvring for the upcoming state cabinet/party/boards-corporations rejigs.

MAHA UNITY WORKS:
While the Congress impressively retained Maharashtra's Deglur assembly seat with the backing of MVA allies, the Congress-Shiv Sena-BJP triangular fight in Dadra and Nagar Haveli LS seat saw Sena stunning the other two.

MP-ASSAM WOES:
In MP, the BJP retaining Khandwa LS seat and wresting the assembly seats of Jobat and Prithvipur from the Congress boosted the Chouhan regime and wilted the state Congress despite a consolation victory in Raigaon. In Assam, solo-fighting Congress losing two sitting seats to the BJP and tasting defeat in another three - and losing in Meghalaya and Mizoram - shows that GoP is now reduced to a side-player in the BJP versus regional parties in the northeast.

BIHAR LESSONS:
Despite the spirited fight and Lalu Yadav's campaigning, the RJD failed to wrest BJP ally JDU's Kusheshwar and Tarapur seats. But a closer look at the data shows that the RJD was still right in denying the claim of the Congress to one seat and breaking ties because not only did the Congress forfeit its deposits but what its candidates polled were still below the losing margin of RJD, including its 3,868 deficit in Tarapur. Will these results drive the RJD and Congress further apart or bring them closer before LS polls have to be seen.

Haryana:
Part of the epicenter of farmers' protests, the ruling BJP suffered defeat at the hands of INLD leader Abhay Chautala, who had resigned from assembly as a protest against three farm laws. The sharp dip in Congress votes also helped Chautala.