Uttar Pradesh election: Upper caste base tilting factor for reserved seats, say experts

LUCKNOW: The saffron wave that had swept through the state in 2017 fetched the BJP and its allies 75 out of the 86 reserved seats — highest tally ever for any political outfit in the state.
Of the 75 seats, 69 were won by the BJP alone while its allies Apna Dal (S) and Suhaildev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) had won three each. The Anupriya Patel-led AD(S) emerged as a winner in Soraon (Prayagraj), Chhanbey (Mirzapur) and Duddhi (Sonbhadra).
BJP’s other ally, the SBSP -- now with SP -- had bagged Ramkola (Kushinagar), Jakhanian (Ghazipur) and Ajagara (Varanasi) reserved seats.This was significant for SBSP, which had won a total of four seats. SBSP chief Om Prakash Rajbhar won from Zahoorabad assembly seat in Ghazipur. The stellar performance of BJP and its ally in the reserved seats had attained significance in the backdrop of the saffron party making deeper inroads among Dalits, the core votebank of BSP chief Mayawati. Under the popularity of PM Modi, the BJP had won all 17 reserved Lok Sabha seats in 2014. In 2019 LS elections too, BJP won 15 out of the 17 reserved seats. BJP sources said the party would continue to bank on the leadership of PM Modi and CM Yogi Adityanath, who have been working for “all sections” of society “without any discrimination”.
Election data show that BSP, which had won 61 out of 89 reserved seats in 2007 assembly elections, was reduced to just three seats in 2017 — Lalganj, Sagri (both in Azamgarh) and Sidhauli (Sitapur). In fact, its Sagri MLA, Bandana Singh switched over to BJP in November last year.
SP, which had bagged 60 out of 85 reserved seats in 2012 when the then Mulayam Singh Yadav-led political outfit stormed to power with full majority, too, had to contend with just seven seats in 2017 — Nagina, Kishni Mohanlalganj, Kannauj, Mehnagar, Machchlishahr and Saidpur. Saidpur MLA, Subhash Pasi too has now jumped ship and joined the BJP.
Experts said that the performance of political parties in the reserved seats was largely indicative of their support base among the upper caste. “Since the Dalit votes get divided among all political parties, it is the support of the upper caste community which plays a decisive role,” a political analyst said.
Experts cite the example of 2007 elections when BSP successfully played out the social engineering formula which brought it to power.