Is Omicron on the wane in Wales? Infection data suggests it is, though changes to the way Covid cases are confirmed have thrown a slight spanner into the works.

The latest infection rate for Wales, based on the seven days up to January 9, is 1,274.2 cases for every 100,000 people – well down on the highs seen the previous week.

Right across the northern half of Wales, case numbers per head of population are falling, in some cases by more than 50%.

READ MORE: Cafe owner forced to close rages at maskless 'idiots' wanting directions to Covid testing site

Yet the Welsh Government’s changes to the rules around testing – which meant people no longer needed PCR confirmation if they are asymptomatic and test positive on a Lateral Flow Test (LFT) – has complicated matters.

It’s been estimated that this decision will reduce the overall number of reported cases by around 10%.

As a result, the data for PCR tests – taken by people with symptoms – now needs to be seen in conjunction with the LFT data.

The graphs below show the PCR infection rate has been falling rapidly since January 1, while the LFT data, which is more delayed, following a similar pattern but is yet to decline.

Which may partly explain Cardiff's continued caution.

North Wales, which often follows the south in the Covid trajectory, is now seeing some of the worst impacts of the virus.

The MSOA district with the most recorded cases in Wales yesterday was Holyhead, with 32 new infections. Currently, Holyhead also has the highest weekly daily rate, averaging 28 per day.

Second worst in the country, in terms of total case numbers, was Wrexham West with 25 more yesterday and a daily rate of 23 infections over the past week.

Not far behind is Broughton & Saltney, averaging 21 cases per day.

Also in Flintshire, daily averages are high in Holywell & Bagillt.

Meanwhile, the MSOA district of Gresford, Marford & Rossett yesterday became the first in North Wales – and the second in the country - the record 3,000 cases since the pandemic began.

Seven days ago, North Wales infection rates were highest in the Conwy district of Llandudno Junction South & Glan Conwy and, in Gwynedd, in Blaenau Ffestiniog & Trawsfynydd.

Since then, levels here have fallen back significantly, emphasising the ebb and flow of the disease.

Currrently, Wrexham West has the highest seven-day case rate per 100,000 people (2,015.8) in North Wales. Rates are also high in Holyhead (1,940.5), Gwersyllt West & Summerhill (1,856.5), Colwyn Bay North (1,853.9) and Holywell & Bagillt (1,803.4).

In Mid Wales, Newtown South is currently worst affected with a seven-day infection rate of 2,151.4.

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County seven-day infection rates per 100,000 people

  • Anglesey: 1,247.8 (down from 1,991.6 seven days ago)
  • Ceredigion: 802 (down from 1,807.6)
  • Conwy: 1,385.6 (down from 2,480.3)
  • Denbighshire: 1,151.6 (down from 2,122.3)
  • Flintshire: 1,310.7 (down from 2,340.8)
  • Gwynedd: 987.5 (down from 1,945.2)
  • Powys: 1,107.7 (down from 1,811.5)
  • Wrexham: 1,366.6 (down from 2,182.3)

Covid-19 cases by district across North and Mid Wales

Figures supplied by Portal COVID-19 Cymru using Public Health Wales data

(Infection rate = number of cases per 100,000 people in seven days up to Jan 6)

Anglesey

  • Holyhead: Cases on Jan 14 - 32; Running total - 2,395; Week’s daily average - 28
  • Llaingoch & Valley: Cases on Jan 14 - 7; Running total - 1,307; Week’s daily average - 9
  • Rhosybol, Marianglas & Moelfre: Cases on Jan 14 - 3; Running total - 916; Week’s daily average - 6
  • Llanfair Pwllgwyngyll & Menai Bridge: Cases on Jan 14 - 3; Running total - 1,203; Week’s daily average - 5
  • Llangefni: Cases on Jan 14 - 8; Running total - 1,364; Week’s daily average - 10
  • Amlwch & Llannerchymedd: Cases on Jan 14 - 8; Running total - 1,354; Week’s daily average - 12
  • Newborough: Cases on Jan 14 - 6; Running total - 1,337; Week’s daily average - 10
  • Bodedern & Rhosneigr: Cases on Jan 14 - 8; Running total - 1,309; Week’s daily average - 11
  • Beaumaris & Benllech: Cases on Jan 14 - 3; Running total - 1,209; Week’s daily average - 7

Ceredigion

  • Aberystwyth North: Cases on Jan 14 - 11; Running total - 1,112; Week’s daily average - 12
  • Aberystwyth South: Cases on Jan 14 - 8; Running total - 1,067; Week’s daily average - 7
  • Borth & Bontgoch: Cases on Jan 14 - 8; Running total - 1,166; Week’s daily average - 6
  • Rheidol, Ystwyth & Caron: Cases on Jan 14 - 6; Running total - 1,651; Week’s daily average - 7

Conwy

  • Llandudno Town & Gogarth: Cases on Jan 14 - 19; Running total - 1,484; Week’s daily average - 15
  • Old Colwyn & Llanddulas: Cases on Jan 14 - 16; Running total - 1,781; Week’s daily average - 16
  • Llandudno Junction South & Glan Conwy: Cases on Jan 14 - 13; Running total - 1,410; Week’s daily average - 12
  • Llandudno Junction North & Deganwy: Cases on Jan 14 - 11; Running total - 1,486; Week’s daily average - 11
  • Penrhyn Bay: Cases on Jan 14 - 6; Running total - 1,200; Week’s daily average - 8
  • Rhos-on-Sea: Cases on Jan 14 - 7; Running total - 927; Week’s daily average - 8
  • Colwyn Bay North: Cases on Jan 14 - 11; Running total - 1,350; Week’s daily average - 14
  • Kinmel Bay & Towyn: Cases on Jan 14 - 7; Running total - 1,828; Week’s daily average - 10
  • Upper Colwyn Bay: Cases on Jan 14 - 5; Running total - 1,645; Week’s daily average - 13
  • Betws-yn-Rhos, Llangernyw & Llansannan: Cases on Jan 14 - 3; Running total - 1,270; Week’s daily average - 8
  • Llandudno South: Cases on Jan 14 - 11; Running total - 1,480; Week’s daily average - 15
  • Abergele: Cases on Jan 14 - 6; Running total - 2,100; Week’s daily average - 12
  • Llanrwst & Betws-y-Coed: Cases on Jan 14 - 3; Running total - 1,599; Week’s daily average - 12
  • Llanfairfechan & Penmaenmawr: Cases on Jan 14 - 6; Running total - 1,420; Week’s daily average - 14
  • Conwy & Afon Roe: Cases on Jan 14 - 3; Running total - 1,097; Week’s daily average - 8

Denbighshire

  • Prestatyn North: Cases on Jan 14 - 11; Running total - 1,271; Week’s daily average - 7
  • Denbigh West: Cases on Jan 14 - 5; Running total - 1,217; Week’s daily average - 7
  • Prestatyn Central & East: Cases on Jan 14 - 6; Running total - 1,223; Week’s daily average - 7
  • Llandyrnog & Llanarmon-yn-Iâl: Cases on Jan 14 - 1; Running total - 1,067; Week’s daily average - 6
  • Denbigh East & Pentre Llanrhaeadr: Cases on Jan 14 - 3; Running total - 1,440; Week’s daily average - 5
  • Llangollen & Llandrillo: Cases on Jan 14 - 5; Running total - 1,286; Week’s daily average - 6
  • Dyserth & Tremeirchion: Cases on Jan 14 - 5; Running total - 1,395; Week’s daily average - 9
  • Rhuddlan & Bodelwyddan: Cases on Jan 14 - 4; Running total - 1,358; Week’s daily average - 9
  • Rhyl South West: Cases on Jan 14 - 6; Running total - 1,401; Week’s daily average - 8
  • St Asaph & Trefnant: Cases on Jan 14 - 5; Running total - 1,107; Week’s daily average - 8
  • Corwen, Llanelidan & Efenechdyd: Cases on Jan 14 - 2; Running total - 1,065; Week’s daily average - 5
  • Ruthin: Cases on Jan 14 - 4; Running total - 1,228; Week’s daily average - 7
  • Prestatyn South: Cases on Jan 14 - 0; Running total - 1,037; Week’s daily average - 5
  • Rhyl East: Cases on Jan 14 - 7; Running total - 2,361; Week’s daily average - 13
  • Rhyl North: Cases on Jan 14 - 12; Running total - 2,288; Week’s daily average - 15

Flintshire

  • Connah’s Quay Wepre: Cases on Jan 14 - 2; Running total - 1,653; Week’s daily average - 13
  • Flint South West: Cases on Jan 14 - 7; Running total - 1,484; Week’s daily average - 7
  • Buckley North, Northop & Sychdyn: Cases on Jan 14 - 9; Running total - 1,344; Week’s daily average - 6
  • Buckley South: Cases on Jan 14 - 3; Running total - 2,130; Week’s daily average - 14
  • Ewloe & Hawarden: Cases on Jan 14 - 9; Running total - 2,301; Week’s daily average - 14
  • Mold: Cases on Jan 14 - 5; Running total - 2,182; Week’s daily average - 9
  • Mostyn & Holway: Cases on Jan 14 - 1; Running total - 1,297; Week’s daily average - 8
  • Queensferry & Sandycroft: Cases on Jan 14 - 4; Running total - 1,126; Week’s daily average - 7
  • Caerwys, Halkyn & Nannerch: Cases on Jan 14 - 1; Running total - 1,419; Week’s daily average - 6
  • Connah’s Quay North: Cases on Jan 14 - 6; Running total - 1,303; Week’s daily average - 8
  • Hope: Cases on Jan 14 - 3; Running total - 1,257; Week’s daily average - 6
  • Gronant, Ffynnongroyw & Trelawnyd: Cases on Jan 14 - 2; Running total - 957; Week’s daily average - 6
  • New Brighton & Mynydd Isa: Cases on Jan 14 - 1; Running total - 1,284; Week’s daily average - 4
  • Leeswood, Treuddyn & Gwernaffield: Cases on Jan 14 - 2; Running total - 1,397; Week’s daily average - 5
  • Pen-y-ffordd & Higher Kinnerton: Cases on Jan 14 - 2; Running total - 1,483; Week’s daily average - 5
  • Connah’s Quay South & Northop Hall: Cases on Jan 14 - 6; Running total - 1,624; Week’s daily average - 9
  • Flint North East: Cases on Jan 14 - 7; Running total - 1,790; Week’s daily average - 11
  • Broughton & Saltney: Cases on Jan 14 - 8; Running total - 2,695; Week’s daily average - 21
  • Holywell & Bagillt: Cases on Jan 14 - 9; Running total - 2,360; Week’s daily average - 18
  • Shotton & Garden City: Cases on Jan 14 - 4; Running total - 2,188; Week’s daily average - 13

Gwynedd

  • Bangor City: Cases on Jan 14 - 12; Running total - 1,349; Week’s daily average - 9
  • Tywyn & Llangelynnin: Cases on Jan 14 - 4; Running total - 922; Week’s daily average - 7
  • Barmouth & Dolgellau: Cases on Jan 14 - 8; Running total - 1,275; Week’s daily average - 11
  • Pwllheli & Morfa Nefyn: Cases on Jan 14 - 5; Running total - 1,314; Week’s daily average - 9
  • Abersoch & Aberdaron: Cases on Jan 14 - 3; Running total - 708; Week’s daily average - 3
  • Bala & Mawddwy: Cases on Jan 14 - 5; Running total - 1,176; Week’s daily average - 7
  • Blaenau Ffestiniog & Trawsfynydd: Cases on Jan 14 - 7; Running total - 1,355; Week’s daily average - 11
  • Bethesda: Cases on Jan 14 - 9; Running total - 1,642; Week’s daily average - 12
  • Harlech & Llanbedr: Cases on Jan 14 - 7; Running total - 1,009; Week’s daily average - 8
  • Bethel & Llanrug: Cases on Jan 14 - 5; Running total - 1,531; Week’s daily average - 6
  • Llanberis & Deiniolen: Cases on Jan 14 - 4; Running total - 1,278; Week’s daily average - 5
  • Penygroes, Talysarn & Dyffryn Nantlle: Cases on Jan 14 - 2; Running total - 1,296; Week’s daily average - 5
  • Porthmadog: Cases on Jan 14 - 5; Running total - 1,249; Week’s daily average - 12
  • Bangor South: Cases on Jan 14 - 7; Running total - 1,811; Week’s daily average - 13
  • Caernarfon West & Waunfawr: Cases on Jan 14 - 2; Running total - 1,333; Week’s daily average - 6
  • Caernarfon East: Cases on Jan 14 - 1; Running total - 2,191; Week’s daily average - 11
  • Criccieth & Llanaelhaearn: Cases on Jan 14 - 1; Running total - 1,218; Week’s daily average - 5

Powys

  • Machynlleth & Banwy: Cases on Jan 14 - 6; Running total - 855; Week’s daily average - 4
  • Llanidloes, Blaen Hafren & Llandinam: Cases on Jan 14 - 5; Running total - 1,151; Week’s daily average - 8
  • Four Crosses & Guilsfield: Cases on Jan 14 - 5; Running total - 848; Week’s daily average - 8
  • Welshpool: Cases on Jan 14 - 7; Running total - 1,030; Week’s daily average - 11
  • Newtown South: Cases on Jan 14 - 5; Running total - 950; Week’s daily average - 10
  • Llanfair Caereinion & Caersws: Cases on Jan 14 - 2; Running total - 993; Week’s daily average - 6
  • Abermule, Churchstoke & Kerry: Cases on Jan 14 - 4; Running total - 824; Week’s daily average - 6
  • Knighton & Presteigne: Cases on Jan 14 - 5; Running total - 1,488; Week’s daily average - 13
  • Newtown North: Cases on Jan 14 - 3; Running total - 1,296; Week’s daily average - 10
  • Montgomery, Trewern & Berriew: Cases on Jan 14 - 2; Running total - 790; Week’s daily average - 6
  • Llanfyllin & Llanwyddyn: Cases on Jan 14 - 3; Running total - 1,365; Week’s daily average - 10

Wrexham

  • Johnstown North & Rhostyllen: Cases on Jan 14 - 8; Running total - 1,489; Week’s daily average - 9
  • Borras & Rhosnesni: Cases on Jan 14 - 8; Running total - 1,108; Week’s daily average - 5
  • Llay South & Gwersyllt East: Cases on Jan 14 - 10; Running total - 1,914; Week’s daily average - 11
  • Ruabon & Marchwiel: Cases on Jan 14 - 6; Running total - 1,571; Week’s daily average - 11
  • Wrexham West: Cases on Jan 14 - 25; Running total - 2,216; Week’s daily average - 23
  • Coedpoeth & Brymbo: Cases on Jan 14 - 9; Running total - 2,215; Week’s daily average - 11
  • Rhosllannerchrugog & Johnstown South: Cases on Jan 14 - 9; Running total - 1,740; Week’s daily average - 11
  • Bangor-on-Dee, Overton & Penley: Cases on Jan 14 - 7; Running total - 1,170; Week’s daily average - 9
  • Gresford, Marford & Rossett: Cases on Jan 14 - 11: Running total - 3,005; Week’s daily average - 16
  • Acton & Maesydre: Cases on Jan 14 - 6; Running total - 1,361; Week’s daily average - 8
  • Cefn Mawr: Cases on Jan 14 - 8; Running total - 1,990; Week’s daily average - 13
  • Caia Park: Cases on Jan 14 - 8; Running total - 1,680; Week’s daily average - 16
  • New Broughton & Bryn Cefn: Cases on Jan 14 - 4; Running total - 1,878; Week’s daily average - 9
  • Hermitage & Whitegate: Cases on Jan 14 - 18; Running total - 2,291; Week’s daily average - 17
  • Chirk & Ceiriog Valley: Cases on Jan 14 - 4; Running total - 1,313; Week’s daily average - 11
  • Penycae & Minera: Cases on Jan 14 - 3; Running total - 1,261; Week’s daily average - 8
  • Gwersyllt West & Summerhill: Cases on Jan 14 - 5; Running total - 1,575; Week’s daily average - 14
  • Wrexham Town North, University & Rhosddu: Cases on Jan 14 - 8; Running total - 2,236; Week’s daily average - 14

Have your say on the latest figures in the comments section below.