Mike McCarthy’s job should be in jeopardy after his Dallas Cowboys’ catastrophic upset loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Arlington, Texas.
The Cowboys have one of the league’s most talented rosters, but plenty of NFL sources were unsurprised to see Dallas underachieve with the help of McCarthy’s poor game management and decision-making in a big spot.
Signing off on Dak Prescott’s QB sneak with 14 seconds remaining from the Niners’ 41 yard line, down 23-17 with no timeouts, ran the clock out on Dallas’ chance to win.
One analytically-minded coach told the Daily News that even the premise of the QB sneak play call to get closer to the end zone for a better shot to score was off base.
He said there isn’t a meaningful difference in a team’s chance to score on one play from the 45-yard line compared to the 25. It only makes a significant difference when an offense reaches the 15 and in. And Prescott slid down at the Niners’ 24 before the clock ran out.
There also wasn’t enough time to guarantee the Cowboys would get off a second play with only 14 seconds remaining. It reflected a fundamental lack of understanding of the game. And while offensive coordinator Kellen Moore reportedly called the play, McCarthy signed off.
The umpire’s bump of Prescott definitely cost the Cowboys a second, but they never should have been in that spot to begin with, and Prescott never physically handed the ump the ball.
Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones told 105.3 The Fan that he expects McCarthy to remain the team’s head coach. “Absolutely. Very confident,” he said.
However, Jerry Jones’ postgame reaction sounded like a foreshadowing of a hard look at McCarthy.
“I think this is the time that when you get this combination of players together, you need to have success,” Jones told reporters. “Because we all know how it goes in the NFL: The whole thing is set out to take away from the best and add to the ones that need improvement. And personnel-wise, I think we have one of the best.”
Jones is right. The Cowboys do have a ton of talent. That’s why he gave a contract extension to de facto GM Will McClay this week before any team could interview and poach him.
McCarthy, 58, has an 18-15-0 record in two seasons. Last year was significantly impacted by Prescott’s season-ending injury. But this year, the Cowboys were 6-0 against the NFC East and 6-6 against everyone else.
Dallas was also whistled for 14 penalties, and they capped it off with a circus act sequence early in the fourth quarter.
The Cowboys completed a fake punt on fourth down, but then they tried to trick the 49ers defense by leaving the punt team on the field for first down, only to take a delay of game penalty as they ran their offense on last-minute.
Jones’ defensive coordinator Dan Quinn also is arguably the hottest head coaching candidate on the market right now, and the only way to keep him would be to fire McCarthy and promote him to the big chair. It’s likely Jones will lose at least one of his coordinators to a head coaching hire, and possibly both.
The Cowboys’ owner has a lot to think about and not much time to make up his mind. Clearly he was stewing coming off the loss. It will be fascinating to see whether he listens to his gut or remains patient with a coach whose process seems fundamentally flawed.
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Bengals coach Zac Taylor had a 2-14-0 record in 2019, a 4-11-1 record in 2020 with Joe Burrow injured as a rookie, and then took Cincinnati (10-7) to the playoffs with a healthy Burrow in year three. Taylor, 38, and the Bengals just beat the Las Vegas Raiders in the Wild Card round and have a date with the AFC’s top-seed Tennessee Titans on deck.
Niners coach Kyle Shanahan had a 6-10 record in 2017, after being hired as a team with GM John Lynch. They slipped to a 4-12 record in 2018 but then turned it around for a 13-3 record and a Super Bowl berth in year three. The 49ers had a down 6-10 year in 2020, primarily due to injuries. But this year Shanahan got them back into the playoffs at 10-7, upset Dallas on Sunday, and set up a divisional round trip to the top-seeded Green Bay Packers.
The Giants’ Joe Judge, meanwhile, was 6-10 in year one, an overachievement given the roster he inherited. He was 4-13 in year two after losing his quarterback and a large part of his team due to injuries. And then he was fired after two seasons, having been saddled with inherited GM Dave Gettleman, and never working with a GM who shared his roster-building vision.
That’s a good side-by-side look at why some organizations succeed and why others fail, how winning is a process but the Giants never let the process they promised Judge fully grow.
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Expect the Giants’ hiring process to kick into gear on Tuesday after Monday’s conclusion of GM interviews with the 49ers’ Ran Carthon and Adam Peters. The Giants are expected to move to a second round of select finalists in person after conducting the first round virtually. The team also may have to start putting in for head coaching interviews alongside their GM search, with eight current head coach openings and competition for the candidates.
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Many league sources have their eyes on New Orleans with curiosity on how head coach Sean Payton is going to proceed. The Saints are in cap hell, they don’t have a franchise quarterback, and the rebuild is going to be painful. Payton, 58, is under contract, so the only way his situation could change is if he were traded or stepped away voluntarily. There’s always lots of noise this time of year, but Payton (152-89-0 record, one Super Bowl in 15 seasons) is so revered as a head coach and offensive mind, it’s worth listening anytime his name comes up. Payton has not responded to several requests for comment.
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Gettleman’s refusal to entertain a trade back in 2018 — and his decision to draft Saquon Barkley over the likes of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Quenton Nelson — was an all-time NFL Draft blunder that helped kill the Giants tenures of two head coaches: Pat Shurmur and Judge.
Allen just threw for 308 yards and 5 TDs, and ran for 66 more yards, in a 47-17 demolition of the New England Patriots. The Bills didn’t punt. Now the Giants need a new GM and their first interview was the Bills’ Joe Schoen, who helped draft Allen in 2018.
Facts like these are why it’s cringeworthy that the Giants organization so publicly fired its head coach out the front door while letting the GM slip out the back with propaganda that this was some sort of voluntary retirement.
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The Bears are interviewing former Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie, 58, for their vacancy, which reminds me how ridiculous it is that I haven’t heard former Giants GM Jerry Reese come across anyone’s call list. Reese, 58, won two Super Bowls and is a respected evaluator, professional and man. He interviewed with the Jaguars a year ago and deserves a look.
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Former Giants defensive coordinator James Bettcher was part of the 49ers coaching staff that held the Cowboys to 17 points. Bettcher is a senior defensive assistant/run game specialist. It’s amazing what coaches can accomplish with good players … Jason Pierre-Paul was traded by Gettleman with a fourth-round pick in 2018 for a Bucs third and fourth. Gettleman drafted DL B.J. Hill and QB Kyle Lauletta. JPP won a second career Super Bowl last year and is a leader on a Bucs team trying to repeat. Lauletta was a wash, and Hill didn’t produce in New York before his trade to Cincinnati this fall – but he did have a sack on the Bengals’ final drive to stand up the Raiders in Cincy’s first playoff win in 31 years… I fully expect the Philadelphia Eagles, who hold three first-round picks in April’s draft, to pursue a big-time quarterback via trade this offseason. Owner Jeffrey Lurie has good offensive and defensive lines, but Jalen Hurts can’t take that team where it needs to go in this window. It’s also unthinkable that WR Jalen Reagor is still allowed on the field. His muffed punt on Sunday turned a one-sided Bucs win into a laugher. Eagles GM Howie Roseman infamously drafted Reagor over Justin Jefferson in 2020 … Referee Jerome Boger and his crew being pulled from the rotation after Saturday’s inadvertent whistle on a Bengals touchdown pass – and incorrect ruling to uphold the score anyway – is typical of the reactionary NFL. It’s too late. The playoffs’ first weekend was filled with the officials injecting themselves into games, including phantom roughing the passer calls on the Bengals and Eagles and the umpire’s hip check of Prescott. The rulebook is overcomplicated, and the enforcement of the rules is selective. It’s just a mess.
