Maharashtra: Covid-19 deaths in third wave nowhere close to second wave casualties

MUMBAI: Daily Covid-19 deaths may be inching upwards in the state but the numbers are nowhere close to the casualties seen during the raging second wave. An analysis by the state has found there were 25,787 deaths reported between April 11 to May 1, 2021, considered the peak of the Delta-driven second wave and the deadliest in the pandemic thus far.In the first week starting April 11, there were 6,798 deaths, which jumped by 38% in the second week to touch 9,358. It further rose to 9,631 deaths in the third week ending May 1 before the fatalities started to decline. In several weeks after, the state carried out reconciliation adding hundreds of unreported deaths, indicating that many more died in those weeks.
In comparison, the third wave has not seen an exponential jump in fatalities yet despite the surge in cases. The state data showed that in the three weeks between December 27 to January 16, when cases raced past 5.5lakh, confirmed deaths were 314. If week-on-week increase is considered, deaths rose from 59 between December 27 to January 2, then nearly doubled to 120 and touched 135 in the third week ending January 16. The case fatality rate in this period was 0.05% compared to the peak second wave's 1.95%.
Dr Pradeep Awate, state’s surveillance officer, said the second wave with nearly 7lakh active cases was much bigger. “The third wave is already declining in the big districts such as Mumbai,” he said, adding that just about 1% of active cases are critical now. Dr Avinash Supe, who heads the Covid death audit committee, said the numbers suggest that even if cases have multiplied in the last three weeks, deaths have remained lower. In the second wave, there were also deaths reported among children, young adults and people under 30. Such a trend is not seen in the third wave yet, he added.
At the Government Medical College in Nagpur, majority of hospitalisations are of elderly with complications such as diabetes. “During the second wave, young people used to come gasping for breath,” said Dr Sushant Meshram, head of pulmonary medicine at GMC, Nagpur. “There are almost negligible people on ventilators ,” said Meshram, adding deaths are due to delay in seeking care in many cases.