Will Yogi Adityanath be able to hold power in Uttar Pradesh in 2022?

UP is the most populous state of India, accounting for around 16.49% of the total population of the country (as per2011 census), has always drawn attention in India and abroad.

The Vidhan Sabha Election of 2022 is no exception. It is always said that the political party that wins Lucknow, eventually wins New Delhi, since UP has 80 members in Lok Sabha. One of the major reasons for winning the Lok Sabha Election by BJP in 2014 & subsequently retaining it in 2019, is its tally of MPs from UP. While BJP bagged 71& 62 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 & 2019 respectively, the Congress got reduced to two seats in 2014 & confined to a solitary seat of Raibareli in 2019.

The eclipse of Congress in recent years at the center is largely due to massive erosion in its base in UP.

The table below illustrates the impact of UP in the swing of fortune for INC & BJP

Figures in the bracket indicate the total nos. of Lok Sabha seats won by the respective parties.

In the 2017 Vidhan Sabha Election also BJP went on to win the overwhelming majority, bagging 312 seats. The spectacular performance of BJP can be seen from the table below

Whether BJP will be able to match the spectacular performance in the 2022 UP Vidhan Sabha Election is a moot point?

Some of the major developments that have taken place in UP and in the Country after the 2017 UP Vidhan Sabha Election will have a profound impact on the 2022 UP Vidhan Sabha, namely

• The emergence of Yogi Adityanath, as a major player in UP.
• Dent in the popularity of Modiji due to recent setback of BJP in Vidhan Sabha Election of Bengal & Withdrawal of Farm Laws.
• Rise of Akhilesh Yadav as the undisputed leader of Samajwadi Dal & subsequent Consolidation of non-Yadav OBC Votes under his leadership.
•  The popularity of Mayawati among Dalits & her ability to stitch a rainbow coalition of Brahmins, Dalits & Muslims.
•  Increase in Poverty & unemployment, due to Pandemic & subsequent Lockdowns.
• Poor Handling of Covid Pandemic Situation by Yogi Administration during 2021.
• Swing of Muslim votes between Akhilesh Yadav & Mayawati.
• Unity among Jats & Muslims mainly in Western UP, due to prolonged Farm Agitation

The emergence of Yogi Adityanath, as a major player in UP, is the most important factor in the politics of UP today. In the last Vidhan Sabha Election, BJP had not announced any Chief Ministerial Face & it is needless to mention the landslide victory of BJP in the 2017 Vidhan Sabha Election was solely due to the Charismatic Leadership of Modiji & astute micro-management of the election by Amit Shah.

After the election Yogi Adityanath, the firebrand votary of Hindutva & MP from Gorakhpur emerged as a dark horse & catapulted to the post of Chief Ministership. Yogi Adityanath not only went on to break the record of Mayawati of ruling UP continuously for 4years 307 days but may also surpass the record of Akhilesh of ruling UP continuously for 5 years & 4 days.

However, his tenure has been fraught with controversies. While Yogi is taking the credit of initiating construction of Bhavya Ram Mandir in Ayodhya & rejuvenation of Kashi Viswanath Mandir, & also for implementing various developmental programs like Construction of Highways, Airports & Medical Colleges & for improving Law & Order, by putting the Gangsters behind bars, but his distractors allege that the whole operation against Gangsters was conducted on a highly selective basis.

It is also being alleged that the administration is being run by Yogi with the help of favorite Bureaucrats, drawn largely from the Upper Caste Hindu Community, even ignoring ministers from his cabinet. The handling of the Pandemic Situation by Yogi Govt. during 2021, has shown the administration in a bad light. The floating dead bodies in the rivers flowing through UP had also hogged National Headlines.

That is why a slew of resignations took place immediately after the announcement of dates for the election, mostly by the leaders of various OBC castes, who flocked to BJP before the last Vidhan Sabha election, to join the bandwagon of Akhilesh Yadav. Akhilesh has now consolidated his position not only in Samajwadi Dal but also among non-Yadav OBC leaders.

The prolonged Farm Agitation has also reestablished the traditional unity among the Jats & Muslims in western UP, which has been dented seriously due to the 2013 riots of Muzaffarnagar & may go in favor of the SP & RLD Combine. Mayawati, the Dalit czarina, is a formidable political force in UP since 1993 & had garnered 22.23% of votes in the 2017 Vidhan Sabha Election, despite the Modi wave.

She had not only withered many political storms in past & can also recreate the magic of 2007. Whether she will emerge as a King Maker or as a queen in her rights is a matter so intense speculation.

The dice have already been cast. Yogi Adityanath & Akhilesh Yadav have decided to contest Vidhan Sabha Election for the first time.

Since no Chief Minister in UP had two consecutive terms since 1985, will Yogi Adityanath be able to break the jinx & go on to achieve or better the record of Sampoornananda (1954-1960) to rule UP continuously for more than 5years & 344 days?