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    Analysis: With backward caste votes in flux, BJP falls back on Hindutva & nationalism in UP

    Synopsis

    BJP’s campaign in western UP in the last few days has left no doubt that it is banking on Hindutva. Statements made by UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath in the last few weeks have also been on connected issues .

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    Faced with a tough challenge from Samajwadi Party for backward caste votes, the BJP has turned to its trusted plank of Hindutva which has fetched it a rich electoral dividend in the past by overriding caste affiliations. The SP appears to have bettered its backward caste arithmetic in Uttar Pradesh this time with many non-Yadav OBCs rallying behind it, while the saffron party has got the support of Apna Dal and Nishad Party.

    BJP’s campaign in western UP in the last few days has left no doubt that it is banking on Kamandal to overcome the Mandal challenge from the Samajwadi Party, which is now emerging as its main rival. Home Minister Amit Shah chose Kairana - where the BJP has alleged that Muslims had forced an exodus of Hindus during Akhilesh Yadav’s chief ministership - to kick off his campaign on January 22. He visited the families of those who fled from Kairana and returned only after the formation of the Yogi Adityanath government in 2017.

    Shah also raised the issue of abrogation of Article 370 that gave special status to Jammu and Kashmir, and the Ayodhya Ram Mandir during his speech in Meerut, his next stop.

    Statements made by UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath in the last few weeks have also been on issues connected with Hindutva and nationalism. “By fielding the rioters of Muzaffarnagar and Saharanpur and the culprits responsible for the exodus from Kairana as candidates, Akhilesh (Yadav) has made it clear that he wants to once again establish gundaraj in the state,” he said in Noida on Wednesday. He has also often mentioned “Jinnah” in his speeches in recent days.

    The chief minister had also called this election a contest between 80% (meaning Hindus) versus 20% (Muslims). Yogi Adityanath was reportedly in contention for the Ayodhya seat but will now be in the fray from Gorakhpur Urban. The Ram temple and Kashi Vishwanath temple issues have also found mention in the speeches of BJP leaders.

    BJP leaders have further alleged that several minority community candidates of SP-RLD have criminal antecedents.

    After the exit of backward caste ministers Swami Prasad Maurya, Dara Singh Chouhan (Nonia) and Dharam Singh Saini, BJP has been aggressively playing up the Hindutva card. Several west UP constituencies have a sizable minority population that goes up to 42% in some seats. In a direct contest, minority votes will primarily go to SP. The Congress and BSP haven't yet got their act together in these elections.

    The alliance struck by SP with smaller backward caste parties like OP Rajbhar-led SBSP, Keshav Dev Maurya-led Mahan Dal, Sanjay Singh Chouhan-led Janwadi Party (Socialist) which has support of Nonia caste, and Apna Dal (Kamerawadi) led by Krishna Patel which has the support of a section of Kurmi voters, has also put the BJP in a spot.

    The Jats may not be aligning with Muslims in western UP, but anger over the farm laws ( now scrapped) is projected to make them back RLD, an ally of the Samajwadi Party. Shivpal Yadav is also back with his nephew Akhilesh this time, ruling out a division of Yadav votes.

    Other factors, like anti-incumbency due to Covid and its impact on jobs may make it a more formidable electoral battle for the BJP.

    A polarisation of the electorate, especially in the western regions, had worked in favour of BJP in the 2014 and 2019 general elections and the 2017 Assembly polls. Shah had then managed to bring non-Yadav OBCs under the NDA fold, but now leaders of the Rajbhars, Nonia, Saini, Shakya are largely backing the SP. The Nishad, Maurya and Kurmi votes are likely to be divided.

    Last week, Patra had alleged that a contest is on between Congress and Samajwadi Party on which party can spew more hatred against Hindus. He said the Samajwadi Party candidate from Kairana, Nahid Hasan had spewed venom against Hindus and forced them to migrate. Hasan, arrested last week, and his mother Tabassum have defeated BJP candidate Mriganka Singh in the past.

    BJP spokesperson Sambit Patra referred to an ET interview of Akhilesh Yadav to allege that the SP leader has affection for Pakistan and its founder Mohammad Ali Jinnah. He said Yadav can even go to the extent of fielding terrorists like Kasab and Yakub Memon as candidates. Patra said Hasan had given a call to not buy anything from shops run by Hindus and maintained this will force them to flee from Kairana. The party has also slammed SP candidates Rafiq Ansari (Meerut) and Aslam Chaudhary (Dhaulana).

    Patra also targeted Congress for promoting leaders "who speak against Hindus". He said Maulana Tauqeer Raza Khan, head of Ittehad Millat Council, has extended support to Congress. Khan was in the news recently for a video in which he says that if his young supporters get power to control law and order, Hindus will have no place to live in India. He further alleged that Congress has the support of Jamaat-e-Islami, which is banned under UAPA, SDPI, the political wing of PFI, and West Bengal’s Indian Secular Front, led by Abbas Siddique.

    The SP has also tried to woo the Brahmins, a community said to be unhappy with CM Adityanath for allegedly favouring the Thakurs. This could be another factor making the BJP raise the Hindutva card to keep this caste on its side. The contours could be clearer as the UP campaign picks up.


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