Who'll finish fourth? Who's been the biggest flop? And what about the star of the season so far? MARTIN KEOWN and CHRIS SUTTON answer the big questions as the Premier League pauses for breath

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As top-flight football takes a breather, Sportsmail's experts assess the race so far and predict who'll win gold and who'll fall flat on the last leg...

Is it still a three-horse title race?

CHRIS SUTTON: I'd say it's looking more like a two-horse race now. If Manchester City lost the title from here, I wouldn't label it a collapse of Devon Loch proportions. That's because the horse coming up from behind is Red Rum.

City and Liverpool are both capable of embarking on extraordinary runs and they won't relent until the very end. Chelsea were my tip at the start of the season because of Romelu Lukaku, but it just isn't happening for him and Thomas Tuchel. The likelihood is Pep Guardiola will secure his fourth title but it's far from over.

MARTIN KEOWN: I tipped City and haven't seen anything that makes me change my mind. They've only dropped 12 points and have already faced all of the 'Big Six' away from home. But Guardiola and his players will know it isn't over until the fat lady sings. With their game in hand, Liverpool can move to within six points of City, who they play at the Etihad in April. There may be a few twists and turns yet.

Chris Sutton expects Pep Guardiola to lead Manchester City to another Premier League title

Who's going to finish fourth?

KEOWN: With their squad, Manchester United should be finishing fourth. Tottenham have games in hand which, if won, would propel them into the top four. They go to United in March, too, so can take control of this race.

But United won 3-1 at Brentford - where big clubs like Arsenal and Liverpool have failed to win - and followed that up with a 1-0 win over West Ham. I expect the confidence from those wins to start flowing through them.

SUTTON: I'm going for United, too, but that isn't to say I'm totally convinced by them. I don't think Ralf Rangnick, the players and the supporters are even convinced.

They've resembled a team of under-performers for too long, with players like Marcus Rashford and Jadon Sancho doing nowhere near enough. But they've got themselves into a good position.

If you had to sign for United, West Ham, Arsenal or Spurs now, where would you go?

SUTTON: Tottenham, because they've got the best manager. That would draw me towards their project. Antonio Conte is a coach with a winning history. If backed by the board, he can take that club to the next level.

I admire David Moyes, too, and there isn't as much pressure on West Ham, which makes that a nice environment to be in. But it's Conte who would get my signature. I'd have to be willing to work hard, though, because Conte isn't one for passengers - as Dele Alli and Co seem to be finding out.

Sutton would opt to join Tottenham rather than their top four rivals if he was still playing

KEOWN: Take a wild guess! These are four clubs in transition. United haven't won the league since 2013 and are still trying to get back to that level.

Tottenham last won a trophy in 2008 and West Ham in 1980. Arsenal have at least enjoyed some success of late in the FA Cup. I turned United down in 1989 and I'm doing it again now. It's Arsenal for me.

What does Conte need to fix at Tottenham?

KEOWN: Conte has a decent track record in the transfer market. He signed N'Golo Kante, Antonio Rudiger, Marcos Alonso and Oliver Giroud, among others, for Chelsea. Not to mention he signed Romelu Lukaku for Inter Milan.

Tottenham need to give Conte the spending power that will enable him to take them into the top four and stay there.

SUTTON: Harry Kane is world class, Son Heung-min is great and Steven Bergwijn is talented. But throughout the rest of the outfield, Spurs need upgrades. Conte needs better defenders and some creativity in midfield.

Harry Winks is decent but Tottenham can do better. Do not be surprised to see Conte leave if he isn't backed.

Does Mikel Arteta need to make up with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang?

KEOWN: Arsenal haven't scored in their last four games. They've got tremendous young talents but don't have an experienced goalscorer. Yet, technically, they do in Aubameyang. It was a bold decision by Arteta to take the captaincy away from him. I hope when he did, he reassured Aubameyang he had a future at the club because Arsenal could definitely do with his goals now.

This is a big challenge for Arteta. He got the best from Aubameyang in the past. It was his goals which helped win the FA Cup in 2020 and Arteta needs those goals again.

SUTTON: I'm not so sure, Martin. Arteta won his previous squabbles with Mesut Ozil and Matteo Guendouzi and the Arsenal board tend to side with him. That's why they're looking at giving him a new deal. It feels as if this dispute with Aubameyang has gone too far.

Alexandre Lacazette isn't scoring and that's a concern. But it's best to cut ties with Aubameyang and get away from this mess once and for all.

Martin Keown thinks Mikel Arteta has a big decision to make on the future of Aubameyang

Who's been the biggest disappointment?

SUTTON: Lukaku. I thought he'd be the difference and that Chelsea would be this season's title front-runners thanks to his goals but that hasn't happened. He has only scored twice in the Premier League since September and instead brought heat on his manager Thomas Tuchel after that unsolicited interview. So he's my disappointment of the season.

Sutton has been disappointed by Romelu Lukaku's impact at Chelsea since arriving at the club

KEOWN: I'm going to go with Jadon Sancho. He's been disappointing up to now but this is clearly a player with enormous ability. He could yet turn his and United's season around.

Keown feels Jadon Sancho has been even less impressive than Lukaku since his summer move

Who's been the star of the show?

KEOWN: I'm going for Diogo Jota. What a signing he's turned out to be and we all appreciate that now. Liverpool's mid-season capitulation last season coincided with his knee injury. But now he's back and everyone can see why Jurgen Klopp wanted to sign him, even if it did look like he had an unbreakable front three.

SUTTON: Declan Rice for me. He's one of the few English players who returned from Euro 2020 and kicked on. Whereas previously there was a debate about whether he should be in central defence, now he's one of the league's best midfielders. He's box-to-box and can glide past opposition players, having added a goal threat to his game. Without him, West Ham wouldn't be in this top-four fight.

Keown has picked out Liverpool's Diogo Jota as a star performer in the top-flight this season

Sutton thinks Declan Rice has been outstanding at the heart of West Ham's midfield this term

How would you improve VAR?

SUTTON: I'd get former players involved. There would be plenty of willing volunteers to sit on the VAR panel, I'm sure. Anyone with football knowledge could see Jota wasn't fouled by Crystal Palace goalkeeper Vicente Guaita. Apart from VAR Craig Pawson, that is, and it's a shame Kevin Friend didn't have the courage to stand by his original decision at his pitchside monitor.

Once he's looking at the replays, he's already doubting himself and looking for any reason to concur with his mate at Stockley Park.

Just because there's contact between two players doesn't mean it's a foul. What a mess.

KEOWN: I agree with you on that point of former players, Chris. They need someone looking at these incidents through the eyes of players, someone who can judge who it is that's the guilty protagonist in each situation.

I'd also love to see a referee make his own decision at the monitor. They need that independence, instead of being under orders from Stockley Park. VAR should always remember they must only intervene if the referee makes a clear and obvious error.

Who survives out of Norwich, Newcastle, Watford and Burnley?

KEOWN: If Newcastle can get the right players - and this is going to be a very big week for the club - then they can get themselves out of trouble under Eddie Howe. But I have to give great credit to Dean Smith. He must be giddy looking at that table showing Norwich above the red line right now.

If Smith can guide them to safety, after the disappointment of being sacked by Aston Villa, he deserves the freedom of the city!

Keown believes it would be a huge achievement if Dean Smith can guide Norwich to safety

SUTTON: He does! And let's not discount Everton as a relegation contender. They're in such a bad state, surrounded by toxicity, that they aren't out of the woods yet. The same goes for Leeds.

But I take the point that the bottom four are currently the prime candidates to go down.

Burnley have the experience. Newcastle have the money. Watford have sacked Claudio Ranieri and, who knows, they may yet burn through another manager or three before the end of the season.

It won't be easy but I'll back Norwich to stay out of that relegation zone. You may say I'm biased because I played for the club and live in Norfolk. To that I say - you're right!