Two days after the Capitals’ season ended in the first round for the fourth straight year, Brian MacLellan stood at the lectern and, in typical MacLellan fashion, did not hold back, at least as far as NHL general managers go when speaking to reporters.
“We’re going to explore changes,” he said. “I don’t think anything is off the table.”
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“Anything” is pretty broad. But if you’re a Caps player, even one who’s been in Washington for a while and has some term left on your contract, MacLellan’s words probably got your attention.
He sounded disappointed. Even a little angry. And with a core that’s now another year older, he also sounded like a man who knows there isn’t much time left for Alex Ovechkin and Co. to make a run.
What’s MacLellan going to do? It’s unclear. But with the draft and free agency set for the second and third weeks of July, respectively, we know this much: He’s got plenty of time to formulate a plan.
So, as everyone (anxiously?) waits to see how it all unfolds, let’s take our annual, five-tier look at the roster and rank who we think is staying and who might be going.
(Players within each tier are in alphabetical order)
Tier I: The locks to stay
John Carlson, defenseman: The 32-year-old’s playoff performance didn’t match a strong regular season that saw him set a career high for goals with 17 and finish fifth in points among all defensemen with 71. That stings. Still, it’s really difficult to imagine a scenario in which the team’s ice-time leader and alternate captain gets dealt. Carlson’s 15-team no-trade list becomes a 10-team list this summer.
Evgeny Kuznetsov, forward: The Caps needed a big season from Kuznetsov, and the 30-year-old delivered, averaging a career-high 20 minutes, 17 seconds of ice time and producing 78 points, the second-best total of his career. Like Carlson’s trade protection, Kuznetsov’s 15-team no-trade list becomes a 10-team list this summer, but it’s probably safe to say there won’t be any rumors. With Nicklas Backstrom’s status unclear, there’s no longer any question that No. 92 is the team’s No. 1 center.
Martin Fehervary, defenseman: The swift-skating Slovak, who is currently representing his country at the IIHF World Championship, enjoyed a breakout rookie season. The 22-year-old led all first-year defensemen in goals (8) and hits (251). He was also sixth in blocked shots (117) and eighth in ice time (19:39). Next season he’ll enter the final year of his entry-level contract, which averages $791,667, making him the biggest bargain on the roster.
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T.J. Oshie, forward: It was a difficult regular season for the 35-year-old winger, who was limited to 44 games due to injury and illness. But his team-leading six goals in the playoffs underscored his value for an organization that fancies itself as a contender. Age and nagging injuries are becoming a concern; MacLellan acknowledged that “wear and tear” is starting to catch up with some of the team’s older stars. That said, it’s hard to understate Oshie’s importance on and off the ice, particularly with fellow right wing Tom Wilson’s status unclear. Oshie also has a 10-team no-trade list.
Dmitry Orlov, defenseman: The 30-year-old enjoyed a very strong season in which he registered career highs in goals (12) and points (35) while skating 20:58 per game, the second-highest total on the team behind Carlson’s 23:49. Orlov will count $5.1 million against the cap next season before becoming an unrestricted free agent.
Alex Ovechkin, forward: The 36-year-old Caps captain scored 50 goals for the ninth time, and the 90 points he accumulated marked his highest output since he recorded 109 in 2009-10, his age 24 season. Ovechkin now sits third on the all-time goals list with 780, with only Gordie Howe (801 goals), whom he’ll likely pass next season, and Wayne Gretzky (894 goals) ahead of him. So, duh.
Tom Wilson, forward: The 28-year-old power forward had a career year in goals (24) and points (52) and, just as important, stayed out of the NHL Department of Player Safety’s crosshairs. Then his third shift of Game 1 vs. Florida happened, and now, in his words, his “summer sucks.” Indeed, it figures to be tough. Although he declined to divulge the nature and severity of the knee injury he suffered while attempting to make a hit, the damage is significant. More figures to be known soon; the team typically announces when a player undergoes surgery and provides a timeline for their return. That timeline, of course, could impact MacLellan’s plans. Wilson has a seven-team no-trade list.
Tier 2: The semi-locks to stay
Nic Dowd, forward: Although the fourth-line center was limited to 64 games due to injury and COVID-19, he continues to improve in his early 30s. This season, he produced a career-high 24 points (10 goals, 14 assists). He’ll see his salary nearly double next season as the three-year, $3.9 million extension ($1.3 million cap hit) he signed in November kicks in.
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Nick Jensen, defenseman: Although he was a key a part of the blue line that, in MacLellan’s estimation, “wasn’t as good” in the playoffs as the regular season, Jensen had a strong season overall. In fact, the 31-year-old established career highs in goals (five), points (21) and plus-minus (plus-32). He’s entering the final year of a team-friendly deal that averages $2.5 million per.
Trevor van Riemsdyk, defenseman: A versatile third pair defenseman who, on most nights, outperforms his $950,000 cap hit. Players like TvR are essential for top-heavy teams like the Caps.
Tier 3: Let’s hear what you’ve got
Garnet Hathaway, forward: The 30-year-old winger notched a career-high 14 goals and 26 points this season. He’s also a key piece of coach Peter Laviolette’s most-trusted line, can move up in the lineup in a pinch and is a pain to play against. And with a year remaining on his contract at $1.5 million, he provides good value, too. But, like most fourth-liners, he’s always in jeopardy of being replaced by a younger, less-expensive player.
Anthony Mantha, forward: The 27-year-old, who missed most of the regular season after undergoing shoulder surgery in November, can dominate games, like his two-goal, two-assist performance before friends and family in Montreal on April 16 and his 10-hit performance in Game 1 of this year’s playoffs. But there are also stretches where the 6-foot-5, 234-pound winger is much less noticeable. As frustrating as that inconsistency can be at times, teams will always be intrigued by Mantha’s size and upside.
Connor McMichael, forward: In the Caps’ season-ending news conference, both Laviolette and MacLellan hinted at a bigger role for the rookie next season and, just as notably, at center, not wing. Including McMichael in a trade doesn’t feel like a prudent move for a team that’s looking to get younger. But, like most of the players in this tier, McJesus, as Ovechkin has nicknamed him, falls into the “you’ve got give something to get something” conversation.
Conor Sheary, forward: Another Laviolette favorite, Sheary is a Swiss Army knife. He can skate on either wing, play up and down the lineup and chip in on special teams. His 19 goals and 43 points were his highest totals since his breakout season with the Penguins in 2016-17. One concern? One point in six playoff games this spring (an assist) after one point (a goal) last postseason. The 29-year-old has one year at a team-friendly $1.5 million left and, like Hathaway, falls in the good-but-not-irreplaceable category.
Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, forward: If Carl Hagelin is unable to play, AJF, a fellow Swede with a similar skill set, looks like a potential replacement. At 24 years old and with a cap hit of $750,000, he’s a low-cost option who would help the Caps get younger — something MacLellan mentioned as a priority.
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Joe Snively, forward: In March, the 26-year-old homegrown talent signed a two-year, one-way contract that averages $800,000, which helped take some of the sting out of the season-ending wrist injury he suffered a couple of weeks earlier. In 12 games, the rookie produced four goals and three assists. That’s a very small sample size, of course, but it sure looks like he’s got a future as a full-timer, likely as a middle-six left winger.
Tier 4: The big decisions
Nicklas Backstrom, forward: What now? Another grueling summer of treatment and rehab for his bum left hip? A second surgery since 2015? It’s all on the table. MacLellan hinted that another year like this past one is not practical for Backstrom or the team. Complicating matters is the fact that the 34-year-old has three years remaining on his contract at an average salary of $9.2 million per season, or 11.3 percent of the current salary cap. He’s also got a no-movement clause in 2022-23 and a 15-team no-trade list in the two seasons that follow.
Lars Eller, forward: It was a disjointed year for the 33-year-old third-line center. In addition to a couple of lengthy COVID-19 quarantines, he had a revolving door for wingers. Still, he managed to amass 13 goals and 31 points in 72 games, which is in line with his average production since coming to D.C. If everyone were healthy, he might be in some jeopardy, with McMichael pretty much penciled in as a center next season and Aliaksei Protas ready to make a push. But everyone’s not healthy; with Backstrom’s status far from certain, the Caps might not be in a position to shed a veteran pivot, even one with another year at $3.5 million left on his deal.
Carl Hagelin, forward: The 33-year-old resumed skating in the playoffs after suffering a significant left eye injury on March 1. But that doesn’t mean a return to the NHL is a given, as he said on breakdown day. “It’ll be a grind, of course,” he said, noting that his vision won’t ever be perfect again. “I’ll do everything I can this summer to be ready for camp.” He has one year at $2.75 million remaining on his contract.
Matt Irwin, defenseman: This probably doesn’t qualify as a “big” decision, but you never know how much you need a reliable seventh defenseman until you don’t have one. And Irwin, 34, filled that role to a T. He’s an unrestricted free agent.
Ilya Samsonov, goaltender: The 2015 first-round pick has had three years to show he’s capable of being a legitimate No. 1 goaltender in the NHL, and, so far, he’s been unable to do it. The speculation is that MacLellan will keep either Samsonov, 25, or Vitek Vanecek, 26, and pair the holdover with a veteran acquired via trade or free agency. Both Samsonov and Vanecek are restricted free agents with arbitration rights.
Vitek Vanecek, goaltender: Because of his overall body of work during the regular season, Vanecek got the net to start the playoffs but was pulled after allowing five goals on 15 shots in Game 2. Samsonov finished the series. Was that Vanecek’s last game in a Caps jersey?
Tier 5: Likely gone
Johan Larsson, forward: The 29-year-old left winger filled the fourth-line role he was acquired at the deadline to fill, but there are younger options, like Jonsson-Fjallby, who, with more experience, can perform the same job — and do it for less, too. Larsson, 29, is an unrestricted free agent.
Marcus Johansson, forward: In his second stint with the Caps, Johansson, who’ll turn 32 at the start of next season, had his moments, including scoring the game-winner in Game 3 vs. the Panthers. But, like Larsson, there will be other options, both internal and external, whom MacLellan figures to examine first, especially if he must spend big on a goalie.
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Michal Kempny, defenseman: After starting the season with AHL Hershey, the 31-year-old returned to D.C. and saw spot duty, suiting up for 15 games. He’s an unrestricted free agent after earning $2.5 million per year the previous four years.
Justin Schultz, defenseman: The third-pair defenseman, who’ll turn 32 in July, saw his ice time decline to 16:55 per game — sixth on Washington’s blue line — in the second season of a two-year, $8 million contract. He’s an unrestricted free agent this summer, and the Caps have younger, less expensive prospects, like Alex Alexeyev and Lucas Johansson, who are ready to make the jump.
(Top photo of Marcus Johansson and Nicklas Backstrom: John McCreary / NHLI via Getty Images)
