Cornered as tensions rise, will N. Korea carry out its 7th nuclear test?

Posted on : 2022-05-26 17:16 KST Modified on : 2022-05-26 17:16 KST
With the US, South Korea, and Japan ratcheting up their deterrence with the North in mind, tensions are rising on the Korean Peninsula
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un heads into a Politburo meeting on May 21. (still from KCTV/Yonhap News)
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un heads into a Politburo meeting on May 21. (still from KCTV/Yonhap News)

Conflict is brewing and tensions are rising on the Korean Peninsula after North Korea fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and two short-range ballistic missiles on Wednesday while US President Joe Biden was returning home from a tour of South Korea and Japan.

After Biden reiterated his intention to strengthen deterrence against North Korea during meetings with the leaders of South Korea and Japan, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un responded just as harshly by firing off short-range missiles that could hit South Korea or Japan and an ICBM capable of reaching the US.

It’s widely thought that Kim could decide to carry out the North’s seventh nuclear weapon test during the fifth plenary session of the Eighth Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, which is supposed to be held in early June.

North Korea’s decision to fire both short-range ballistic missiles and an ICBM appears to reflect its strategic calculations in the areas of foreign policy, military affairs and politics.

First, the timing of the missile test is suggestive. The South Korean government under President Yoon Suk-yeol made note that “North Korea’s provocation occurred after the South Korea-US summit, but before President Biden had arrived in the US.”

It’s also notable that the North’s mixed missile launch overlapped with joint military exercises by China and Russia, which sent six warplanes into Korea’s air defense identification zone northeast of Dokdo on Tuesday. That can be seen as a retort to Biden and Yoon’s adoption in their joint statement of a hard-line stance that incorporates nuclear weapons into extended deterrence.

Second, on a tactical level, Kim may have thought this was the right time to test the “diversification of nuclear deterrence” he has often emphasized, given the turbid political currents in Northeast Asia.

Third, the North Korean leader appears to have been hoping to distract a public that is agitated by the spread of COVID-19 by stirring up confrontation with the outside world.

North Korea’s overarching consideration appears to have been that the UN Security Council is unlikely to impose sanctions even if Pyongyang takes strategic military action because the US is at odds with Russia over the war in Ukraine and with China over economic and trade matters.

The most troubling part of this situation is that there’s no obvious way to keep Kim from carrying out strategic shows of force.

Since Biden is on the defensive with the midterms coming up in November, most think there’s little chance that he’ll make a meaningful proposal to Kim before the election. When asked if he had a message for Kim during his visit to South Korea on Sunday, he said, “Hello. Period.”

“If Biden’s North Korea policy during the Moon administration was close to ‘benign disregard,’ that seems to have turned to ‘hostile disregard’ in his summit with Yoon,” said a former senior official in the South Korean government.

But given the strain of countering both China and Russia, others think that Biden can’t afford to let the North Korean issue fester indefinitely.

Yoon doesn’t seem to have any intention of engaging the North in dialogue, either. “The policy of being over-concerned about [North Korea’s] feelings [. . .] has proven to be a failure,” he told CNN during an interview on Monday.

Under these circumstances, some expect that North Korea will soon carry out a seventh nuclear test.

“Kim probably doesn’t mean to cut off dialogue with the US permanently, but the problem is the lack of a positive response. For now, I doubt that we can keep a seventh nuclear test from becoming a reality,” said a veteran figure in the field of foreign policy and national security.

By Kwon Hyuk-chul, staff reporter; Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

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