Mike Leach died at the age of 61
Mississippi State receiver Austin Williams remembers sitting on the bus and waiting. It was November 2020, and Mississippi State officials didn’t know if they’d have enough available players to face Georgia the next day in Athens because of COVID-19 positive tests and contact tracing. The number of players allowed to dress had dipped below 53, the threshold for a team to postpone or cancel a game. But these Bulldogs wanted to face those Bulldogs. The buses rolled.
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As thin as Mississippi State was against a roster that would make up the majority of the next season’s national title team, it was a hell of a fight between the hedges. The score was tied at 24 until a Kearis Jackson touchdown catch with 9:50 remaining allowed Georgia a chance to escape the upset.
That performance infused Mississippi State — then one of the youngest teams in the SEC — with confidence that carried into 2021. That season, as difficult as it was to navigate, set the table for a depth chart in 2022 that looks more like one from 1992.
Williams signed with Mississippi State in 2017. He played one season for Dan Mullen and two seasons for Joe Moorhead. He’s entering his third season playing for Mike Leach. He wouldn’t be there had the NCAA not issued a blanket waiver essentially declaring 2020 a free year for eligibility purposes. But he’s happy to stay as long as he can.
“I just love playing for State,” said Williams, who will be 24 when the season begins. “I’m in no rush to get out of here.”
His teammates, some of whom have spent their entire careers in Starkville and some of whom came from elsewhere, seem to feel the same. Every player in Mississippi State’s two-deep defensive line rotation will be either 21 or 22 when the season begins, and all have played significant snaps. For example, defensive end Randy Charlton saw the field at UCF in 2018 as a 17-year-old true freshman. He spent two more seasons as a part-time starter for the Knights and then started 11 games for the Bulldogs after transferring last year.
Even the younger players are old, at least in terms of experience. Quarterback Will Rogers won the starting job as a true freshman in the middle of that 2020 season and never let it go. Meanwhile, cornerback Emmanuel Forbes — probably Mississippi State’s best prospect for the 2023 NFL Draft — started from day one in 2020 and provided an excellent complement for 2022 third-rounder Martin Emerson. The leading candidate to replace Emerson this season is third-year sophomore Decamerion Richardson, who spent the past two seasons playing behind the All-SEC performer.
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“With this COVID thing the way it worked out, it’s almost like the way college football used to be,” Mississippi State defensive coordinator Zach Arnett said. “You bring guys in, they play under the older guys. They physically mature. They develop. And then it’s their time to shine.”
Age doesn’t guarantee anything, especially against a schedule that includes some of the nation’s most physically gifted rosters. But Leach, who had his best seasons at Texas Tech and Washington State near the end of cycles that left him with an older roster, believes the consistency of performance a group of experienced veterans can bring — in practice and in games — is one of the more underrated advantages in football.
“It’s incredibly valuable,” Leach said. “It’s more valuable than two flashy sophomores that are going to go to the NFL. Let’s say just the front. If you have four seniors who have played together with a number of starts, that’s a lot more important than two guys that are going to get drafted in the first half.”
Offense
With the exception of Williams, who caught 95 passes for 989 yards and seven touchdowns in the past two seasons, Mississippi State’s receivers group is not as old and experienced as the rest of the roster. The Bulldogs will have to replace Makai Polk, who transferred from Cal before last season, caught 105 passes for 1,046 yards and nine touchdowns and then left for the NFL.
The good news is that seven receivers who caught at least 29 passes return, and Leach’s reputation for chucking the ball tends to draw transfers eager to get targeted. Jaden Walley caught 55 passes for 628 yards and six touchdowns last season. Senior Caleb Ducking could replace some of those catches Polk made on the outside, but so might redshirt freshman Antonio Harmon. Justin Robinson, a 6-foot-4, 220-pounder from McDonough, Ga., played two seasons at Georgia before transferring to Mississippi State. Another intriguing target for Rogers is sophomore Rufus Harvey, a 5-10, 165-pound burner who could provide yards after the catch from the slot.
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The biggest differences between an average Leach offense and a great Leach offense are the quarterbacks’ ability to read the receivers’ minds and the receivers’ ability to slip a tackle and turn a short, ball-control throw into a bigger gain. What’s the most famous play in Leach’s time as a head coach? Michael Crabtree’s touchdown catch to beat Texas in 2008. That play happened because Crabtree was gifted enough to make the catch and elude a tackle while keeping himself from going out of bounds.
For Mississippi State to find success against the better defenses in the SEC, some of those receivers are going to need to turn those easy 8-yard completions into 15- to 20-yard gains. In 2021, Mississippi State averaged more than 10 yards a catch only three times (Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Tennessee State). The passing yardage numbers will always look robust because Leach prefers throwing the ball to running it. Last year, Mississippi State threw on 76.5 percent of its offensive snaps. But some of those throws act essentially as handoffs. To have an efficient, explosive offense, the receivers (and backs) who catch the ball can’t simply catch the ball and get tackled.
Mississippi State didn’t have an explosive offense in 2021. The Bulldogs ranked No. 64 in the nation in yards per play (5.9). That number needs to climb above six for the Bulldogs to succeed against the schedule they’ll face.
The good news is that Rogers has extensive experience working with the backs and many of the receivers. “You’ve got to be on the same page,” Williams said. “This is a reps-based offense. Coach Leach’s playbook doesn’t look the biggest, but there’s a ton of variability with what you can do within each play. You need a ton of reps. You need to keep on stacking.”
Leach’s offense depends on the QB, backs and receivers being able to sight adjust — pre- and post-snap — based on the leverage (which side they’re favoring) of the coverage players and the coverage scheme. Depending on the play and the way it’s defended, a receiver might need to find a particular piece of open grass. Rogers needs to know where that receiver is supposed to be, and both he and the receiver need to know that is the receiver’s plan. Often, this entire process takes place without communication. The idea is that QB and receiver have practiced it so much that it becomes instinctual. It’s a lot easier for a third-year starting QB to reach that level, so Rogers should know exactly where his teammates will be on a given play.
The question is how much time Rogers will have to throw. The Bulldogs bring back a lot of experience on the interior of the offensive line, but they must replace a first-round left tackle (Charles Cross) and a 12-game starter at right tackle (Scott Lashley). Kameron Jones, who started at left guard last season, could slide into the right tackle spot unless redshirt freshman Albert Reese IV wins the job. If Jones plays tackle, it could allow Nick Jones or Cole Smith to take over at left guard. LaQuinston Sharp, a 23-year-old former JUCO transfer entering his third season as a regular at Mississippi State, should anchor the line at center. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee State transfer Steven Losoya could take over at one of the guard spots. The top two candidates to replace Cross are Kwatrivous “Dolla Bill” Johnson, who started seven games at right guard last season, and massive JUCO transfer Percy Lewis (6-8, 345).
Key stat to know: Since becoming a head coach in 2000, Mike Leach has had a three-year starting quarterback three times. (He has never had a four-year starter at QB as a head coach.) None of those teams with a three-year starter won fewer than nine games. Leach’s 2002 Texas Tech team (Kliff Kingsbury) went 9-5. The 2008 Red Raiders (Graham Harrell) went 11-2. Leach’s 2017 Washington State team (Luke Falk) went 9-4.
| CATEGORY | PERCENT RETURNING | TOP RETURNER |
|---|---|---|
Passing yards | 100 | Rogers, 4,739 |
Rushing yards | 100 | Johnson, 485 |
Reciving yards | 69 | Walley, 628 |
OL starts | 63 | Jones, 13 |
Tackles | 86 | Johnson, 87 |
Tackles for loss | 74 | Wheat, 9 |
Sacks | 78 | Wheat, 6 |
Interceptions | 82 | Forbes, 3 |
Defense
Like Leach’s offense, Arnett’s 3-3-5 defense can be a change-up for opponents. But also like Leach’s offense, the defense needs experienced players who understand what everyone is doing. Linebackers must know how defensive linemen are slanting on a given play. Defensive backs must know who is applying the pressure so they can adjust their coverage accordingly. Done correctly, the defense can drive an opposing QB mad. But mental errors that lead to defenders being out of position can lead to huge gains for the offense.
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That’s why Arnett is so thrilled with the experience he returns. You’ve seen how old the defensive line is. The linebackers are similarly grizzled. Strongside Tyrus Wheat, a former juco transfer, is in his fifth collegiate season. To appreciate just how long Wheat has been playing college football, consider this: He was only a year behind Alabama star DeVonta Smith at Amite (La.) High. Smith played four years in college and is entering his second season as a Philadelphia Eagle. Weakside linebacker Jett Johnson, who barely played his first three years in the program, broke out and led Mississippi State in tackles in 2021. Middle linebacker Nathaniel “Bookie” Watson is another fifth-year senior.
“With that chemistry and knowing each other, you get a feel for knowing a guy is going to be where he’s supposed to be,” Johnson said. “You can play without hesitation, and the defense flows better.”
Watson and Johnson came in together in 2018 and stood in awe of future first-rounders Jeffery Simmons and Montez Sweat. Now they’re the players the freshmen want to emulate. But to stay that way, they’ll need to improve on a season where Mississippi State finished No. 68 in the nation in yards per play allowed (5.6). The Bulldogs need to look like the group that held NC State to 4.4 yards a play and not the one that allowed 7.9 yards a play to Alabama and 7.1 yards a play in a Liberty Bowl loss to Texas Tech.
To do that, the Bulldogs will have to eliminate the massive busts that lead to massive plays. Mississippi State didn’t give up a lot of big plays last season, but the big plays the Bulldogs gave up were huge momentum-swinging gains. The Bulldogs ranked a respectable No. 18 in the nation in plays of 10 or more yards allowed (148). But they ranked No. 101 in plays of 40-plus yards allowed (17) and No. 107 in plays of 50-plus yards allowed (10). Cutting those big-play numbers in half would make a huge difference in defensive performance.
Key stat to know: CB Emmanuel Forbes is the SEC’s active career leader in interceptions (8). He’s also the FBS active career leader in interceptions returned for touchdowns. All three of those came during his freshman season in 2020.
Special teams
“If I had kicked last year, we might have won two more games,” Leach joked. Or maybe he wasn’t joking. The Bulldogs missed all three of their field goal attempts in a 31-28 loss at Arkansas. They missed a 33-yarder in a 28-25 loss to LSU. They missed two in a 31-21 loss to Ole Miss.
In an attempt to fix this, Leach dipped into the transfer portal. Out came Massimo Biscardi, who made 46 of 57 field goal attempts in four seasons at Coastal Carolina. The Bulldogs also grabbed Ben Raybon, who made 13 of 21 field goal attempts in two seasons at Northern Colorado. The competition between the two is expected to continue through preseason camp.
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Punter Archer Trafford came to the Bulldogs from Air Force last offseason and finished 2021 as the starter, but he’ll face competition out of the portal. George Georgopoulos, a South Carolina native who started four seasons at UMass, committed to Mississippi State in April and is expected to arrive in June.
Opposing scouting report
A coach who faced the Bulldogs last season explained that Mississippi State’s schemes on both sides of the ball require more intense preparation than more conventional offenses and defenses.
“With Leach’s offense, there are parallels to defending the triple option,” the coach said. “You really have a ball-possession offense that’s always going to have an answer for what you’re trying to do to defend it. It’s not you take something away and it’s over. There’s always going to be a counterpunch.”
Those counterpunches often come in the form of checks made at the line of scrimmage. “They’re subtle,” the coach said. “It’s route adjustments based off leverage and coverage that give the quarterback a good play. And the routes are setting up in uncovered areas. If you’re in man, you’re going to get the routes that extend through and race to the other side of the field. If you’re in zone, they’ll sit down in the soft spots. That allows them to be rhythmic and stay on schedule.” In other words, get the QB on the ground before he can throw to knock the offense off schedule or get the receiver on the ground when he catches the ball to give the defense another chance to force a punt. Because passes will get completed.
The coach was impressed with Rogers. “Against us, it felt like he was always getting the ball in the right place at the right time,” the coach said. “He seemed to have a pretty good command of what they were trying to do.”
The coach said Arnett’s defense is also unique. “They’re not going to be in the same position twice. There are multiple pressures, multiple leverage changes. They can close spaces quickly.”
But because the defense moves around so much, it’s also possible to sometimes catch the Bulldogs either moving away from the point of attack or out of position because someone was aligned improperly.
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“You can catch them in some movements at times and hit some runs,” the coach said. “Texas Tech did that to them in the bowl game. They were able to hit a few and then tempo them. But when they’re dictating terms, it’s really frustrating.”
How the Bulldogs have recruited from 2019-22
Leach can thank Mullen and Moorhead for quite a few of his major contributors. Like Williams, some of these players want to stay as long as they can. Johnson committed to the Mullen staff and signed in Moorhead’s first class. Ditto for Watson, Johnson and defensive lineman Jaden Crumedy.
In Moorhead’s first full-cycle class, the three highest-rated recruits were Cross (No. 27 in the nation), defensive tackle Nathan Pickering (No. 73 in the nation) and defensive end De’Monte Russell (No. 182 in the nation). Cross — the only five-star player Mississippi State signed during these cycles — was a three-year starter and a first-rounder, and Pickering and Russell are multiyear starters.
The two highest-rated signees in 2020 — who signed in December 2019 before Moorhead was fired — were tailback Jo’quavious Marks (No. 138 in the nation) and Forbes (No. 186 in the nation). Both contributed immediately. Forbes should be Mississippi State’s best overall player in 2022.
That class also included Dillon Johnson, who splits carries (and catches) with Marks. Walley, Wheat and Richardson also signed in 2020.
The classes of 2021 and 2022 will have to fight to get on the field this season. If a lot of those younger players do wind up playing, it’s either because they beat out an experienced veteran or a disastrous rash of injuries struck.
In the transfer portal
The Bulldogs didn’t lose a lot of contributors to the portal. The most productive player they lost was linebacker Aaron Brule, who transferred to Michigan State. That’s a best-for-both-parties situation. Brule is good enough to start at a lot of places, and he should be a welcome addition to coach Mel Tucker’s Spartans. He simply lost his spot to Johnson, whose massive improvement between 2020 and 2021 turned him into one of the team’s best players.
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Receiver Malik Heath caught 34 passes for 442 yards and five touchdowns last season for the Bulldogs. Then he made history by becoming the first player to transfer from Mississippi State to Egg Bowl rival Ole Miss.
The biggest contribution the Bulldogs could get from the portal is at kicker. If either Biscardi or Raybon becomes a consistent field goal threat this season, it could improve the Bulldogs dramatically.
Of the position players, Robinson and Losoya seem the most likely to play significant snaps this season. With so many returning veterans, the Bulldogs simply didn’t have many open positions.
Impact of coaching changes
Not much has changed on the coaching staff since Leach arrived. The group that came with him to Starkville is almost completely intact.
Inside receivers coach Dave Nichol left this offseason to join Lincoln Riley’s staff at USC. Sadly, Nichol passed away in March at age 45.
When Nichol left, Leach promoted analyst Drew Hollingshead to inside receivers coach. Hollingshead has been with Leach since Washington State, so Bulldogs players were already familiar with him.
Schedule
Final assessment
The Bulldogs have every reason to be optimistic because history says when Leach has an old team, he has a good team. But here’s the problem: The schedule is brutal. The SEC West is the SEC West, but Mississippi State also must swap Vanderbilt for Georgia in its rotating East Division spot.
Memphis comes to Starkville to open the season, and that won’t be easy. Mississippi State should win on a trip to Arizona in Week 2, but second-year Wildcats coach Jedd Fisch has dramatically improved that roster.
Meanwhile, LSU has hired Brian Kelly. Texas A&M has signed the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class. And Alabama is still Alabama.
Like last season, the Bulldogs should be able to shock some teams. They won at Texas A&M and staged a comeback for the ages at Auburn in 2021. They’ll be capable of winning as an underdog again in 2022. But if the Bulldogs want to finish with a better record than they did in 2021, they’ll have to find ways to win games like the ones they lost against LSU, Memphis and Arkansas. Because against this slate, a team can’t afford to give away games it should win.
Editor’s note: This is part of a series previewing Power 5 and top Group of 5 teams for the 2022 college football season.
(Top photo of Will Rogers and Mike Leach: John Amis / Associated Press)
