Current surge may peak in next 4 weeks in Maharashtra: Top officials

PUNE : The ongoing Covid surge is likely to peak in the next four weeks in Maharashtra, health department officials said. They based their analyses on infection trends, weather patterns and movement of people.
The number of active cases per million population in the state has already risen four times (196), compared to the first week of June (53). A health department official said, “Nearly 92-94% genome samples still show dominance of Omicron’s BA.2 and BA. 2. 38, while the remaining are scattered cases of BA. 4/5 and other insignificant variants. We feel cases may rise further in the coming days due to several factors, including the Wari procession. We are seeing steady growth and a peak is likely to come in the coming four weeks, if the current speed of increase continues. ”
The official said select districts in Maharashtra were showing increase in cases, mainly Mumbai, Thane, Pune, Nagpur, Ahmednagar, but hospital admissions were still low. “Cases are, however, not rising as rapidly as they did in January 2022, during the third wave,” he said.
Pune Municipal Corporation’s (PMC) assistant medical officer Sanjeev Wavare said, “Generally, a change in weather pattern, specifically from summer to more humid monsoon season, registers a rise in viral infections, including Covid. So we expect cases to surge after July 10-15, especially with the Wari procession being underway. ”
Wavare said monsoon season and the rise in humidity levels could also increase transmission, as the virus can piggyback on moisture droplets in the air, increasing chances of person-toperson spread. “Citizens should also be cautious of Covid coinfections (like mixed infections of malaria and dengue with Covid) with the monsoon underway. So precautions are of utmost importance,” he said.
Noble Hospital’s infectious disease specialist Dr Ameet Dravid said, “With more people moving about, including greater intermingling during the Wari procession, cases could surge further as the circulating Omicron variants have increased mutations, conferring increased transmissibility. ” The health department has instructed district officials to isolate warkaris detected with flulike symptoms.
Arrangements for immunizing unvaccinated warkaris and RAT testing at various points in the route have also been made. Oxygen facilities in hospitals along the procession route have also been kept ready.
The Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP) of the state health department, in its June 25 report, said the total tally of BA. 4 and BA. 5 patients in the state has gone up to 49 — 28 cases are in Mumbai, 15 in Pune, four in Nagpur and two in Thane.