Explained: Can Eknath Shinde & Co bring a no-trust vote against the Uddhav Thackeray government?

After the Supreme Court gave Shiv Sena’s rebel legislators reprieve until 12 July to file a response to disqualification notices sent to them, the Eknath Shinde -led group is planning its next move. They are likely to approach Maharashtra Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari and inform him of their decision to withdraw support from the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government.

If Shinde is to be believed, he has the backing of nearly 50 members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) of which 40 are from the Shiv Sena. So if the rebels withdraw from the ruling government, it is likely to prompt a floor test.

We take a look at the possibilities of what could happen in the Maharashtra political crisis.

What is a floor test?

A floor test is a constitutional mechanism under which the chief minister has to prove a majority on the floor of the Legislative Assembly. And if the CM fails to prove his majority, he will have to step down.

In the case of a coalition government, which is the case in Maharashtra, the governor can ask the CM to prove his majority.

Can Shinde & Co call for a floor test? The rebel MLAs are reportedly holding deliberations with their lawyers on the constitutional provisions for holding a floor test.

Earlier reports emerged that two MLAs from the Shinde camp, which has been holed up in a five-star hotel in Guwahati, are likely to travel to Mumbai to meet the governor and inform him about losing confidence in the Uddhav Thackeray-led MVA government. However, now Shinde has said that all the rebel MLAs are heading to Mumbai. “We are all going to Mumbai,” the Sena leader said outside the Guwahati hotel, reports NDTV.

Koshyari is likely to ask the state government to prove a majority in the house this week.

With the two weeks in hand to respond to the disqualification notice served by deputy speaker Narhari Zirwal , the Shinde camp seems upbeat. However, the Thackeray faction, which is smaller in number with the support of only 15 MLAs has reasons to worry. Its plea to disallow floor test until 11 July was not considered by the Supreme Court.

Does the Governor have the powers? The governor is free to exercise his authority if any faction approaches him for a floor test.

According to the Supreme Court ruling in the 2016 Nabam Rabia Vs Arunachal Pradesh Speaker case, the governor can conduct a floor test. The situation in the case was similar to the one in Maharashtra.

If the House is in session, Speaker calls for a floor test. But when the Assembly is not in session, the governor’s residuary powers under Article 163 allow him to call for a floor test, reports The Indian Express.

Does the MVA have the numbers to survive the floor test?

Without the support of the Shinde faction, it will be difficult for the MVA to prove its majority.

The rebel camp has the support of 39 out of Shiv Sena’s 55 MLAs. It also claims the support of 10 MLAs who are either Independents or from smaller parties, taking their number to 50.

The strength of the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly is 288, now 287 after the death of Sena’s Ramesh Latke last month. The halfway mark needed to form the government is 144.

Congress has 44 MLAs and the NCP 53 and with 16 sticking with Thackeray, the coalition stands at 111. They are 33 short of 144. Of the 29 independent and small party MLAs, it has the support of 19. If the support remains as is, MVA still does not have the numbers to cross the halfway mark.

What is the Thackeray faction saying?

Senior Shiv Sena leader and MP Sanjay Raut has said that they are hopeful for the return of the breakaway MLAs.

“There are still a few MLAs whom we do not consider rebels, as they are in touch with us. Their family is also in touch with us and we are hopeful that they would return to us,” Raut claimed on Tuesday.

He said that Leader of the Opposition Devendra Fadanavis should stay out of the ongoing political crisis. “If they do (get involved), then their party (the BJP), Fadnavis and PM Modi’s names will be tarnished,” Raut said, according to The Indian Express.

Uddhav Thackeray is expected to hold a Cabinet meeting this afternoon, which he will attend virtually. On Monday, the CM took away the portfolios of rebels camping in Guwahati and allocated them to other colleagues.

What is the BJP saying?

Several BJP leaders met at Fadanavis’ residence to discuss the possibility of forming a government along with the Shinde faction, reports NDTV. “We are open to the proposal of government formation from Eknath Shinde,” said party leader Sudhir Mungantiwa.

The rebel leaders of the Shiv Sena are upset with the party for breaking their alliance with the BJP and joining hands with the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) to form an “unnatural alliance”.

With inputs from agencies

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