COVID-19 update for Oct. 3: Next COVID wave is already starting in Canada — here's why it should be different | Report claims Canada's COVID measures avoided 800,000 deaths

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Here’s your update with everything you need to know on the COVID-19 situation in B.C. and around the world for Oct. 3, 2022.

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COVID-19 update for Oct. 3: Next COVID wave is already starting in Canada — here's why it should be different | Report claims Canada's COVID measures avoided 800,000 deaths Back to video

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We’ll provide summaries of what’s going on right here so you can get the latest news at a glance. This page will be updated regularly every day this week, with developments added as they happen, so be sure to check back often.

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Headlines at a glance

• A new paper, co-authored by Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam, estimates that with absolutely no public health measures and no vaccines, 800,000 people would have died from COVID-19 in Canada.
• The next COVID wave is already starting in Canada. Here’s why this one should be different.
• The U.S. Supreme Court has turned away a challenge to Biden’s vaccine order for health workers
• A new study has found that those who had COVID-19 are at a higher risk for a number of brain injuries a year later
• Canada ends travel restrictions, mask mandates
• COVID hospitalizations rise 20 per cent from last week: BCCDC data
• Cases are up in Quebec, but health officials say too early to call wave
• Health officials in B.C. are urging the public to get flu shots and COVID boosters this fall
• A judge has upheld a B.C. employer’s mandatory COVID vaccination policy
• More than 1.6 million travellers arrived in Canada without using ArriveCAN
• Employers struggling to find workers in B.C.’s pandemic recovery economy
• Meantime, some workers are worried about COVID safety as they return to office

Latest News

Report co-authored by Theresa Tam claims Canada’s COVID measures avoided 800,000 deaths

A new paper from scientists at the Public Health Agency of Canada, co-authored by Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, estimates that with absolutely no public health measures and no vaccines, 800,000 people would have died from COVID-19 in Canada.

The paper was published in the Canada Communicable Disease Report, a peer-reviewed medical journal published by PHAC. The article, which appeared in the July/August edition, presents a series of several counterfactual scenarios, from an approach with no public health measures or vaccines to scenarios where public health measures, like lockdowns and masks, were simply lifted earlier.

According to the paper, which had several authors including Tam, the worst-case scenario would have seen 34 million Canadians get the virus had it been allowed to run free. Two million of those people would have ended up in hospital and 800,000 would have died.

The paper used information up to April of this year, by which point 150,000 people had been hospitalized and 38,783 had died, a number which rose over the summer and now sits at just over 45,000 deaths.

Read the full story here.

— Ryan Tumilty, Postmedia News

The next COVID wave is already starting in Canada. Here’s why this one should be different

COVID-19 is ticking up again and the country is barely into fall.

That shouldn’t come as a surprise, said McGill University genomic evolutionary biologist Jesse Shapiro. Forget, for a moment, all the alphanumeric subvariants, new and old, scientists are watching. “Even just based on waning immunity, the time since the average person had their last infection or their last booster, a wave was expected,” Shapiro said.

In most provinces, immunity isn’t as high as it could be, which is why Canada’s public health agency is appealing to people to get “up to date” with their vaccines. New bivalent shots that target the original SARS-CoV-2 strain, as well the original BA.1 strain of Omicron, are being rolled out, though Health Canada has yet to approve bivalent boosters targeting the BA.4 and BA.5 strains, which, along with BA.2, are currently the major circulating strains in Canada.

Infections and hospitalizations are inching up in Quebec, Alberta, and British Columbia, but wastewater signals are falling in Saskatchewan. Public Health Ontario reported Friday that it’s seeing a gradual increase in cases and the number of tests coming back positive, when looking back over the past two weeks. Ottawa is already in a “new wave” of COVID-19, the city’s public health department declared last week.

COVID-19 is persisting at a fairly high rate of infection across the country, experts said. “Here in British Columbia, it’s estimated we’re under-reporting cases by 100-fold,” said University of B.C. evolutionary biologist Sarah Otto who, like Shapiro, is a member of Canada’s national Coronavirus Variants Rapid Response Network, or CoVaRR-Net.

Based on the network’s data sharing, Shapiro predicts that, one by one, the provinces will acknowledge another wave. “As usual, it’s hard to say, will this be a big wave? Will it be a small wave. For sure it’s a wave of some kind.”

Should we worry? Science magazine dropped a piece last week warning one or more of several highly immune dodging strains of SARS-CoV-2 — BA. 2.75.2, BQ.1.1, BF.7 — “may well cause big, new COVID-19 waves this fall and winter.” What it means in terms of severe disease and deaths, Science said, is very much an open question.

Read the full story here.

— Sharon Kirkey, Postmedia News

Supreme Court turns away challenge to U.S. vaccine rule for health workers

The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday declined to hear a challenge by Missouri and nine other states — mostly Republican-led — to President Joe Biden’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate for workers in healthcare facilities that receive federal funds.

The justices turned away an appeal by the states after a lower court declined to immediately consider their claims that the vaccine rule violates federal administrative law and tramples over powers reserved for the states under the U.S. Constitution. The Democratic president’s administration issued the rule in November 2021.

The Supreme Court ruled in a 5-4 decision in January to let Biden enforce the healthcare worker mandate while litigation on its legal merits continued in lower courts. The justices at the same time decided 6-3 to halt his administration’s rule requiring vaccines or weekly COVID-19 tests for employees at businesses with at least 100 employees.

Biden’s administration had argued that the two mandates would save lives and strengthen the U.S. economy by increasing the number of vaccinated Americans. The United States leads the world in COVID-19 deaths, reporting more than a million since the pandemic took hold in the early months of 2020.

— Reuters

Those who had COVID-19 at higher risk for brain injuries a year later: Study

Those who had COVID-19 are at a higher risk for a number of brain injuries a year later, according to a new study.

The study, published in Nature Medicine, looked at brain health using medical records without patient identifiers from millions of U.S. veterans.

It found that brain or neurological disorders occurred in seven per cent more people who had been infected with COVID than with a similar group of veterans who had never been infected.

“The results show the devastating long-term effects of COVID-19,” senior author Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly, of Washington University School of Medicine, said in a statement.

The medical records of 154,000 U.S. veterans who had tested positive for COVID from March 1, 2020 to Jan. 15, 2021 were studied. Their records were compared with those of 5.6 million Americans who did not have COVID during that time frame, plus another 5.8 million people from the period just before COVID arrived in the U.S.

Memory issues, also known as brain fog, were the most common symptom. The study found that people infected with COVID had a 77 per cent higher risk of developing memory problems.

Strokes caused by blood clots were also 50 per cent more likely amongst those who had been infected, the study found. Seizures were 80 per cent more likely and mental health issues were 43 per cent more likely.

— Postmedia News

Canada has now ended its COVID-19 travel restrictions, mask mandates

As of this morning, travellers to Canada do not need to show proof of vaccination against COVID-19 — and wearing a mask on planes and trains is now optional, though it is still recommended.

People entering the country are no longer subject to random mandatory tests for the virus, and those who are unvaccinated will not need to isolate upon arrival.

Anyone who entered Canada in the last two weeks and was subject to quarantine or testing is off the hook as of today.

And inbound travellers do not need to fill out the controversial ArriveCan app anymore, although they can still use it to fill out their customs declarations at certain airports.

Federal ministers announced the end of the COVID-19 public health restrictions earlier this week, saying the latest wave of the disease has largely passed and travel-related cases aren’t having a major impact.

— The Canadian Press

COVID hospitalizations rise 20 per cent from last week: BCCDC data

B.C. reported 367 people in hospital on Thursday tested positive for COVID-19, a 20 per cent increase from the same time last week. Of these, 30 are in critical care.

Last Thursday, 305 patients were in hospital with the virus, while 22 required critical care.

The surge comes a day after health officials predicted a moderate surge from COVID-19 this fall and winter.

B.C. is preparing for an increase in hospital admission both from COVID-19 and from other respiratory illnesses including influenza, said Dr. Bonnie Henry, provincial health minister, and Health Minister Adrian Dix. Some projections suggest up to 700 additional people may require hospitalization.

The number of reported cases of COVID-19 remained steady at 635 for the week of Sept. 18 to 24, one less than the previous week, according to the latest COVID-19 weekly report from the B.C. Centre for Disease Control.The report indicates 150 people were in hospital from Sept. 18 to 24 and 16 people died with the virus during the same week.In total, 4,283 people have died of COVID-19 since the beginning of the pandemic.

The province switched to a weekly reporting system in April. For a primer on how to interpret data in the BCCDC weekly reports, click here.

— Cheryl Chan

COVID-19 indicators up in Quebec, too early to declare new wave: public health

New COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations linked to the disease are on the rise in Quebec, prompting the province to make the influenza vaccine available earlier than usual to protect vulnerable people against both viruses.

Starting Oct. 5, seniors and other at-risk residents can get the flu vaccine for free at clinics and pharmacies and can obtain a shot at the same time as their COVID-19 vaccination, public health director Dr. Luc Boileau told reporters in Quebec City.

“Influenza, like many other viruses, is not something we should take lightly,” Boileau said. “There are many people who have had a rough case of the flu and who have suffered, and every year, many of them die. It’s a serious illness.”

But despite the rise in COVID-19 indicators, Boileau said it’s too early to declare that Quebec has entered a new wave. And on a positive note, he said, the return to school has triggered “very weak” COVID-19 transmission. Fewer than 6,000 infections have so far been reported in schools, he added.

— The Canadian Press

B.C. officials push flu, COVID-19 vaccines ahead of possible late-fall surges

Health officials say while B.C. is emerging from the pandemic, a moderate surge in cases is possible this fall and winter.

The good news is that most of the population has accrued some immunity to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, from vaccination or infection, health officials said at a news conference Wednesday.

However, that strong immunity will wane over time and so health officials are urging British Columbians to get a booster shot that protects against the Omicron variant.

Hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 are significantly down from a peak in January, according to B.C. government data. There was a slight surge in May and then there has been a steady decline.

Read the full story here.

— Tiffany Crawford

Judge upholds B.C. employer’s mandatory COVID vaccination policy

A B.C. judge has upheld an employer’s right to place an employee on an unpaid leave of absence for failing to comply with a mandatory COVID vaccination policy.

The decision of B.C. Supreme Court Justice Heather MacNaughton was made in the case of a senior manager of a property management firm who had declined to get vaccinated.

In her lawsuit, Deepak Parmar alleged that she had been constructively dismissed from her employment with Tribe Management, claiming that the company had breached its contractual obligations by imposing the mandatory policy.

Parmar, an accounting professional who is not an anti-vaxxer, according to the judge, was concerned that the vaccines were prepared and distributed hastily and that there was limited data about their long-term efficacy and potential negative health implications.

Read the full story here.

— Keith Fraser

Medical professionals reiterate that COVID-19 is still a threat

The removal of mask mandates and vaccine requirements has medical professionals and front-line workers reiterating that COVID-19 is still a threat.

The federal government announced on Monday that starting Oct. 1, all COVID-19 entry restrictions will be removed, including testing, quarantine and isolation requirements for anyone entering Canada.

A professor of epidemiology at the University of Saskatchewan, Nazeem Muhajarine, said that the lifting of restrictions did not come as a surprise to him and other medical professionals as Canada could only last so long before joining other countries’ regulatory practices.

Canada is one of the last countries to remove travel requirements following the U.S. and the U.K. — yet, Muhajarine said, the removal of the requirements does not mean the removal of the threat of COVID-19.

—The Canadian Press

More than 1.6 million travellers arrived at border without using ArriveCAN: government document

The Liberal government will stop requiring travellers to use the ArriveCAN app — though new data shows that since the start of the year, more than 1.65 million individuals already flaunted the rules by arriving at the border without providing the information through the app.

The government said Monday it would lift all COVID-19-related travel measures on Oct. 1, including the requirement that travellers to Canada use the ArriveCAN app to provide COVID-19 vaccine, health and travel information before they arrive. The move follows opposition to the app from business groups, including the travel and tourism industry, and the Conservative Party.

According to a document tabled in the House of Commons last week, between Jan. 1 and Aug. 31, a total of 1,651,900 travellers had “presented themselves at the border for entry into Canada without having submitted their public health information through ArriveCAN prior to arrival.” That number accounts for about 4.3 per cent of the 38.5 million individuals who entered Canada via air or land from the start of the year to Sept. 11.

— The National Post

Employers stretched to recruit workers in B.C.’s pandemic recovery economy

Restaurant supplier Russell Hendrix’s managers had to do a lot of juggling in the company’s flagship showroom to cover for two floor sales jobs that took months to fill, even offering $1,000 signing bonuses.

“Vancouver was a challenge for me before the pandemic, but the pandemic just made it a lot harder,” said Anna Blaszczynska, the company’s vice-president of human resources, who has taken the “unprecedented” step of using a recruiting agency to find those showroom sales reps, which is usually an entry-level position.

And with B.C.’s province-wide unemployment rate near record lows, 4.8 per cent as of August, according to Statistics Canada’s labour force survey, Blaszczynska doesn’t know “if there’s going to be an end to this.”

B.C. isn’t alone. Nation-wide, the workforce that was first upended by massive job losses at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic is being upended again by multiple forces.

Read the full story here.

— Derrick Penner

Workers worried about safety of returning to office as potential COVID wave looms this fall

Some Canadian workers are raising concerns about a full return to office and work travel as Ottawa lifts all remaining border restrictions and experts warn of a potentially large wave of new COVID-19 cases this fall.

The “living with COVID” stage has seen most mask mandates dropped, self-isolation rules nixed and mandatory workplace vaccine polices rescinded. Yet as the risk of repeat infection and long COVID is better understood, some workers worry about exposure from a daily commute, travelling for conferences or working in a shared space.

Some are even leaving their positions that require office attendance or significant travel.

Ben MacLeod quit his dream job over health concerns. Earlier this year he moved back to his hometown of Halifax from Asia in search of career experience and safe harbour during the pandemic.

Nova Scotia’s response to the novel coronavirus was among the most cautious in the world and he thought it was a safe bet.

— The Canadian Press

What are B.C.’s current public health measures?

MASKS: Masks are not required in public indoor settings though individual businesses and event organizers can choose to require them.Masks are also encouraged but not required on board public transit and B.C. Ferries, though they are still required in federally regulated travel space.

GATHERINGS AND EVENTS: There are currently no restrictions on gatherings and events such as personal gatherings, weddings, funerals, worship services, exercise and fitness activities, and swimming pools.There are also no restrictions or capacity limits on restaurants, pubs, bars and nightclubs; and no restrictions on sport activities.

CARE HOMES: There are no capacity restrictions on visitors to long-term care and seniors’ assisted living facilities, however, visitors must show proof of vaccination before visiting.

Exemptions are available for children under the age of 12, those with a medical exemption, and visitors attending for compassionate visits related to end-of-life. Visitors to seniors’ homes are also required to take a rapid antigen test before visiting the facility or be tested on arrival. Exemptions to testing are available for those attending for compassionate visits or end-of-life care.

How do I get vaccinated in B.C.?

Everyone who is living in B.C. and eligible for a vaccine can receive one by following these steps:

• Get registered online at gov.bc.ca/getvaccinated to book an appointment in your community.
• Or, if you prefer, you can get registered and then visit a drop-in clinic in your health authority.
• The system will alert you when it is time to go for your second dose.
• The same system will also alert you when it is time for your booster dose.

Where can I get a COVID-19 test?

TESTING CENTRES: B.C.’s COVID-19 test collection centres are currently only testing those with symptoms who are hospitalized, pregnant, considered high risk or live/work with those who are high risk. You can find a testing centre using the B.C. Centre for Disease Control’s testing centre map.

If you have mild symptoms, you do not need a test and should stay home until your fever is gone. Those without symptoms do not need a test.

TAKE-HOME RAPID ANTIGEN TESTS: Eligible British Columbians over the age of 18 with a personal health number can visit a pharmacy to receive a free take-home test kit containing five COVID-19 rapid antigen tests.

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