Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Sunday Sweats: Six bets to add to your NFL Week 12 card

Richie James

ASSOCIATED PRESS

New York Giants wide receiver Richie James (80) goes in motion during an NFL game against the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday, November 24, 2022, in Arlington, Texas.

On this holiday weekend, I’m thankful Sunday Sweats doesn’t have to bet against the New York Giants.

The Giants’ Week 12 game is already out of the way, and as usual, they made bettors who went against them pay — in excruciating fashion this time around. Richie James caught a 1-yard touchdown pass from Daniel Jones in the game’s final seconds to make the score 28-20 in favor of the Cowboys, a closing 10-point favorite.

Some turkey was surely flung across living rooms in anger as New York spoiled Dallas bettors’ festivities with a Thanksgiving bad beat. The Giants have been cruising in sports books all year long, now sitting 8-3 against the spread for the second-best betting record in the league behind the Tennessee Titans (8-2).

They’ve beaten Sunday Sweats up a couple times, but not last weekend as Week 11 wound up as the best of the year with a 7-2 record and $1,150 profit. That almost gets me into the black for the year, a goal that looked far out of reach just a couple weeks ago but is now within sight in Week 12.

Read on for this week’s Sunday Sweats that includes bets in six different categories with individual records attached. Check back tomorrow for an additional prop play in the Raiders’ gameday preview piece. The Weekly Raiders’ prop, as well as other plays placed outside the pick’em, will be tracked in the season-long record here with the standard being a bet to win $200 unless otherwise noted.

Tasty Total (7-6, $80): Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks over 47.5 (STN Sports)

$275 to win $250

I try to stray from the Raiders’ games in this space because they have their own bet Sunday, but I couldn’t resist this time around. This is by far my favorite total on the board. I trust both these offenses a great deal better than both these defenses. A few high-leverage failures at the end of games has overshadowed the fact that the Raiders’ offense has been above-average this season. As for their defense, well, there’s no getting around how much of a mess it’s been. Seattle was the same way on defense through the first month of the season before recently getting it together, but how long will that last? I’m not sure it’s going to be sustainable. The conditions are always a fear of betting an over in Seattle, but these offenses have enough weapons to hopefully be able to deal with a light drizzle.

Two-Team (Or Three-Team) Teaser (6-6, -$150): Carolina Panthers +7 & Tennessee Titans +8.5 at -120 (William Hill/Caesars)

$240 to win $200

The plan was to take the Panthers +8 at home against the Broncos, but naturally, the line moved out of standard through-the-3-and-6 teaser territory. Carolina still might be the best choice to boost up to +7, which is safe at Caesars for now until it moves to a pick’em or perhaps a slight favorite. It looks like that’s on track to happen, and it’s never smart to tease through zero. The Titans are a more straight-forward choice, going through both key numbers in their home against the Bengals. Maybe they don’t win, but they also probably don’t lose by more than a touchdown.

Moneyline Parlay (3-8, -$546.50): Atlanta Falcons & Japan over Costa Rica in the World Cup at +306 (Circa Sports)

$150 to win $459

I promised to cover the World Cup in Sunday Sweats as long as it was running, so here we are. Truth be told, I didn’t anticipate using soccer as an inter-sport parlay but there’s not a lot of NFL moneylines catching my eye. Atlanta, +185 at Washington, is the exception. Despite the Commanders’ recent win streak, these teams are about even and anything above +150 is playable. Japan meanwhile could be even chalkier than -230 given how outmanned Costa Rica looks. This might not be another 7-0 pasting like Costa Rica endured against Spain, but Japan is closer to the latter to the former. The Samurai Blue should be in line for a comfortable victory.

Player Prop (10-13, -$546): DeVonta Smith under 58.5 receiving yards at -114 (Boyd Sports)

$228 to win $200

The Packers are weakened up front on defense, but still have an above-average secondary. They’re second in the league against No. 2 receivers by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings to make it even more unlikely that the former Heisman Trophy winner runs wild on them. The Eagles’ offense has shown some cracks the last couple weeks, and while they’ll probably get it together down the stretch of the season into the playoffs, some adjustment for their recent performance is necessary at the moment. Smith’s receiving yards total is too high based on a couple big games he had earlier in the year.

Future Finding (1-2, $400): Chicago Blackhawks to have lowest regular season point total at 6-to-1 (William Hill/Caesars)

$200 to win $1,200

No NFL or World Cup futures stood out, so it’s off to a sport with a market that’s been too slow to adjust. Chicago has arguably been the worst team in the NHL, and these odds haven’t caught up. It also could only get uglier, as the Blackhawks have a couple trade-able assets at the deadline and may look to tank to increase their chances at a top pick in next year’s loaded NHL Draft. Arizona was a runaway favorite to have the fewest points coming into the season and still remains at the top of these odds, but hasn’t been quite as bad expected. That’s largely because the emergence of goalie Karel Vejmelka, and there’s no such savior in sight for the Blackhawks.

Non-football Play (8-5, $630): Morocco +.5 vs. Belgium in the World Cup at -116 (William Hill/Caesars)

$174 to win $150

Belgium may have big names, but it hasn’t been impressive lately including in its opening game of the World Cup. Despite a 1-0 loss, Canada far outperformed Belgium by expected goals. Morocco’s game with Croatia was more neutral but that’s better than the market implied the former would do. Morocco’s a young, smart team that the market may not have fully caught up on. In other words, it’s the exact opposite of an overvalued Belgium side. Morocco may win outright but I’ll play it conservatively and ensure a draw locks up a victory too.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 35-39, -$132.50

Weekend betting column year to date: 103-118-1, $3,461.08

Weekend betting column all-time: 445-449-5, $10,306.81

Previous pending future wagers: Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); TreVeyon Henderson 50-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy ($100 to win $5,000); Patrick Mahomes 10-to-1 to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000); CeeDee Lamb 20-to-1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards; South Carolina over 5.5 wins -150 ($450 to win $300); Louisville to win the ACC 40-to-1 ($50 to win $2,000); Las Vegas Raiders under 8.5 wins +140 ($200 to win $280); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South +360 ($300 to win $1,080); Oregon State over 6 wins -130 ($390 to win $300); Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC 14-to-1 ($100 to win $1,400); Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North +250 ($300 to win $750); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at +300 (risking $300 to win $900); Los Angeles Rams NOT to win the NFC West +145 ($200 to win $290); Texas to win the Big 12 at +450 ($200 to win $900); Nick Bosa to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year at 7-to-1 ($250 to win $1,750); Indianapolis Colts to miss the playoffs at -110 ($220 to win $200); Miami Dolphins to miss the playoffs at +140 ($200 to win $280) ; Giannis Antetokounmpo to win NBA MVP at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Northwest Division at +150 ($200 to win $300); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Western Conference at 15-to-1 ($100 to win $1,500); Minnesota Timberwolves to win NBA Finals at 33-to-1 ($75 to win $2,475); New Orleans Pelicans to win Southwest Division at +350 ($200 to win $700); New Orleans Pelicans to win Western Conference at 24-to-1 ($50 to win $1,200); New Orleans Pelicans to win NBA Finals at 55-to-1 ($50 to win $2,750); Golden State Warriors under 53 wins ($220 to win $200); Los Angeles Clippers under 52.5 wins ($220 to win $200); Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs at -135 ($270 to win $200); Oklahoma to win the ESPN Invitational at 6-to-1 ($200 to win $1,200); Ole Miss to win the ESPN Invitational at 12-to-1 ($100 to win $1,200); France to win World Cup Group D at -190 (risking $380 to win $200); Brazil to win World Cup at +350 (risking $300 to win $1,050); Neymar to win World Cup Golden Boot at 16-to-1 ($100 to win $1,600); TCU not to make the College Football Playoff at -105 ($210 to win $200); Clemson to make the College Football Playoff at +200 (risking $100 to win $200)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or

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