- Stephen McDonell
- BBC reporter, from Beijing
In China, if you want to know the government’s plans for the prevention of the new crown epidemic, it is better to listen to its words than to watch its actions.
Infection cases have not dropped significantly, but now public transportation no longer requires nucleic acid test results; bars and restaurants are slowly reopening; Not sent to a centralized isolation facility.
From Tuesday (December 6), test results will no longer be required to enter supermarkets, office buildings and some other public places.
So when you look at what is going on right now, the trajectory seems to be very clear—the government seems to have quietly abandoned the goal of zeroing out the new crown.
That doesn’t mean all Covid-related restrictions are over — for example, you still need to have a test result within 48 hours to enter hospitals, schools, restaurants and gyms. Again, this does not mean that some restrictions will no longer exist in half a year.
But the stated goal of zero new infections in each wave of the epidemic … has disappeared.
The new plan appears to be aimed at slowing the spread of the virus and hopefully making the healthcare system bearable, rather than trying to eradicate the disease entirely.
This may involve monitoring the virus as it spreads to manage the flow of infection and the number of severe cases and deaths.
At some point, it could mean certain measures are reintroduced, but cities no longer need to see zero new case numbers to open up.
Beijing is not alone in lifting some of the measures — and the differences vary considerably across regions.
Taking the southeastern province of Zhejiang as an example, regular testing is no longer required except for certain occupational groups.
The eastern province of Shandong will no longer require a test before buying cough medicine or driving on a highway; the central province of Henan will no longer require nucleic acid test results to enter residential communities.
Major cities such as Shanghai, Wuhan, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Chengdu have seen similar relaxations.
Urumqi, the capital of the Xinjiang autonomous region, has reopened supermarkets, hotels, cinemas and gyms. Public transport in Tibet has also resumed operation.
Just a few weeks ago, the Chinese government was urging the entire population to cooperate in complying with zero-epidemic measures.
Standing in the Great Hall of the People at the recent party congress, Xi Jinping reiterated his unwavering commitment to his signature policy despite overwhelming evidence that China’s coronavirus lockdowns have hit the economy and livelihoods hard.
Then, the protest happened.
A fire in an apartment building in Urumqi killed 10 people and sparked outrage.
On social media, people have blamed the death tragedy on the new crown lockdown measures, which are said to have prevented firefighters from entering the scene and blocked the escape route of residents. Beijing denies this, and the BBC has not been able to verify the allegations, but there is no doubt that the fire sparked demonstrations across the country.
Protesters in city after city demanded an end to the zero-coronavirus policy. They want to go back to their original life. Some people started calling for Xi Jinping to step down.
Not since political unrest in 1989 that led to a bloody crackdown in Tiananmen Square has there been such widespread public opposition to the Communist Party.
Suddenly, a change happened — and Chinese people started joking that the protests actually worked.
Last week, the death of former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin added to the pressure on the government. His era is remembered by many as a period of rapid development and reconnection with the outside world, in stark contrast to the current situation.
Another danger for Mr. Xi’s government is that public mourning could turn into more protests. This happened decades ago, when the death of the reformist leader Hu Yaobang and the crowds gathering to commemorate him turned into Tiananmen demonstrations.
All of this has led to a government that once seriously underestimated the public outrage caused by the new crown epidemic prevention policy, and now suddenly changed its mind.
Doing this in a way that saves face is the order of the day.
Chinese officials who locked down people far longer than necessary will never come out and apologize to the public for this.
But the Communist Party has begun to steer public opinion through state media, and it now says that current variants of the virus are far less lethal than in the past.
This is a definite shift from before. The main theme in the past has been to claim that the rest of the world is in the hell of the new crown epidemic, and that citizens should feel lucky that they live in a safe China.
Today, two major challenges remain.
First of all, getting more people vaccinated, especially the elderly and high-risk groups, has been insufficient in this regard. Official figures show that only 40 per cent of people over the age of 80 have received booster shots. Previously in Hong Kong, unvaccinated elders accounted for a sizable portion of the death toll.
Second, officials would have had years to expand the capacity of intensive care (ICU, intensive care) departments in Chinese hospitals. This is still insufficient at present, so once the surge in the number of new crown cases triggers a large increase in emergency patients, it will pose a huge test to the medical system.
For this reason, the goal will be to move slowly, trying to make sure that hospitals don’t fill up. If full, lockdown measures can always be reimposed.
China’s new line of epidemic prevention will evolve step by step, even if it means going backwards sometimes.