U.S.-Iran Proxy War Intensifies, Sudan Conflict Rages On, Sundance Film Festival Marks Forty Years, and More

MCMAHON:
In the coming week, the proxy war between Iran and the United States intensifies. Sudan's conflict suffers another diplomatic setback. And, the year's first big movie event, the Sundance Film Festival takes place. It's January 18th, 2024, and time for The World Next Week. I'm Bob McMahon.

ROBBINS:
And I'm Carla Anne Robbins.

MCMAHON:
Carla, we're going to have to start in the Middle East again, as looks like it'll be the pattern for the year. We are more than 100 days now into the war between Israel, and Hamas, and Gaza. Fears of a regionwide spread of conflict continue to grow. U.S. forces have maintained attacks on Iran aligned Houthis based in Yemen. And U.S. officials recently found evidence that implicates Iran in supplying Houthis with weaponry. This is only going to add to the tensions between the United States and Iran in and around the region. So Carla, can you give us a sense of what we know about Iran's involvement in the potentially widening war?

ROBBINS:
This proxy war between Iran, and the U.S., and its allies has been going on for years as you know, Bob. And Iran, of course, is a main backer of Hamas and Hezbollah in Lebanon. It also backs the Houthis in Yemen, as well as Iranian-linked groups, which have been targeting U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria. But the fighting has gotten a lot more intense since the start of the Gaza War. At the same time, all sides look like they're trying to avoid a direct confrontation. It's also not clear that that's possible to avoid, especially in a multi-front war. And this really is a multi-front war, and a time when passions are so intense. 

And adding to the tensions, and this really is a surprise in the last few days, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has gotten directly involved. They've launched missiles against sites in Syria, and Pakistan, and Iraq. And these are all countries with which it's somewhat allied. And these had said were retaliation for recent terrorist attacks inside of Iran that killed eleven security personnel in Sistan and Baluchistan in December. And you remember that terrible attack at a memorial march that killed eighty-two people this month. These countries are allies, varying degrees of warmth. The Iraqis and Pakistanis in particular were not happy. And Pakistan hit back. At the same time, Pakistan itself referred to Iran as a brotherly country. So I think everybody wants to avoid it spinning out of control. But it is spinning. So all of this is proxy wars, and a little bit of a direct war that is beginning there. 

So the proxies that they're getting the most attention, as you mentioned, are the Houthis. They've launched some three dozen attacks since November on shipping in the Red Sea saying they're acting in solidarity with the Palestinians and Gaza. And starting last week, the Brits and the Americans began hitting Houthi military sites. I think there've been some sixty hits so far against missile launchers, air defenses, depots where they store missiles and drones, a few command centers. But the Houthis appear undaunted. In the last few days, they've hit a Greek-owned commercial ship, and two U.S. commercial ships. In all three cases, no one was hurt. And the damage was reported to be limited. But for all of the hitting back, Houthis don't seem like they want to stop. Iran definitely involve missiles. They're very expensive. Drones are cheap, but missiles are expensive. And Yemen is a very poor country. So the Houthis couldn't be doing this without Iranian support. And late Thursday last week, the U.S. Navy SEALs boarded a sailing ship off the coast of Somalia. And according to the Pentagon, they seized components for Iranian-made curise and ballistic missiles, which were bound for the Houthis in Yemen. And tragically, two SEALs are missing after the operation. But it's pretty strong proof of what Iran is doing.

MCMAHON:
So there's a ton going on there. And as you were talking, I'm thinking about if there was a heat map of the area, you'd see throbbing red all over the place. It's just getting worse and worse. But let's maybe start with the Houthis. They dealt with a good amount of attacks from the Saudis in recent years. And it seemed like they shrugged that off pretty successfully, Saudis, by the way, using in many cases U.S. armaments to try to attack the Houthis. They have this lock on this one part of Yemen. So is the U.S. going to be content to continue to be attacking from afar? Is it going to have to ramp things up against them just in the Houthi front? Are you seeing any signs of that?

ROBBINS:
Well, the U.S. held off for a long time. I think they've got multiple equities here. Nobody really wants to make the situation inside of Yemen worse. One of the reasons why the Biden administration took the Houthis off the terrorist list, which they've now put them back on, but not as intensely was because they wanted to be able to get aid inside of Yemen. And nobody wants to make the situation in Yemen even worse. At the same time, what the Houthis are doing is really messing up the global supply chains. So there's a lot of equities involved there. And the Houthis seem completely undeterrable. But missiles are very expensive, as I said. And they won't have an infinite number of them. And if you can stop the source, if you can stop the Iranians from shipping them, maybe pressure on Iran in other ways. Drones are cheap. And the Houthis apparently have a capability of putting them together themselves, getting components from the Chinese, and other places. So whether this is going to be a cat and mouse game, or a bigger fight, we'll just have to watch and see.

MCMAHON:
I wonder how much the Iranians can sustain this, because as you're saying, there seems to be a desire to not escalate. Certainly their sway over Hezbollah seems to be such that Hezbollah is not going to escalate in response to some recent Israeli attacks in Lebanon. But there's these supplies to the Houthis. And then there's the Iranians reacting to attacks on their own soil. It just seems like they've got some problems on their own in terms of who's calling the shots, and who's able to direct things. But they're not necessarily the puppet master that we have in previous years thought of the Iranians as being in the region at least.

ROBBINS:
Well, I think they have different levels of relationships, and different levels of control. I'm certainly not an expert in these relationships. But the things that I've read, and the things I've heard is that they have really limited control with the Houthis, and much more direct relationship with Hezbollah. But U.S. officials believe that not only are the Iranians supplying missiles, but the Iranian ships and aircraft are giving targeting data to the Houthis. These are things that they could cut off, even if they may not be able to persuade them to stop doing what they're doing. So it seems like there's more of a choke point. These attacks in Pakistan, and Iraq, and Syria, these are things that are separate. This is a response to terrorist attacks that have taken place inside of Iran, that happened to be taking place at the same time, but I think are quite separate from the Gaza War.

And I think they, if anything, give the Iranians more of an incentive to try to crank things back in other places. Certainly, they have hit back hard because to send to their own hardliner messages, or their own hardliners domestically, and to send messages internationally, "We have strong missiles. We are a strong country. We're not going to put up with this." At the same time, stability is all for them domestically. They don't want to show any weakness, but they also don't want things to spin any more out of control. They haven't forgotten that there were demonstrations in the street. They haven't forgotten that they have a very weak economy. So they're also walking, to use a cliché on, they're walking a very tough tight rope here.

MCMAHON:
And meanwhile, the core of the fighting is in Gaza, some signs that Israelis may be drawing down some of their forces. And you heard some new language from the U.S. administration in Davos this week about reiterating call for a two-state solution. Are we getting any sense that the U.S. is trying to bring together countries in the region to try to build some momentum on that front, let's say at some an effort of involving the Arab world, and helping to usher into a post-Gaza war phase? Or is that just too remote a prospect?

ROBBINS:
Certainly what the administration would like, but I think as long as the reality of the horrors of what's going on in Gaza continue, and certainly the U.S. seems to have minimal influence of any and all with the Netanyahu government. Until this war winds down, or ends, I just don't see a lot of progress there. And I find it really hard to imagine there's going to be any progress as long as Netanyahu stays in charge of Israel. So that's probably not a reality that the administration wants to voice out loud. But I suspect it's a reality they know.

MCMAHON:
And meanwhile, one of the other subplots going on is that Hamas still holds a number of hostages, more than a hundred at this point. And it's not clear whether there's any process that is going to get more of them released anytime soon.

ROBBINS:
There was some progress this week supposedly to get more aid in, to help the hostages supposedly. But there doesn't seem to be any progress at all on this question of releasing hostages, which is also an essential domestic issue for Netanyahu. But as much as they talk about moving things back, pulling people out, supposedly responding to what the Americans are saying, more targeted form of war, they're going to go after leaders, and not the general population, you still have these thousands and thousands of people who've been killed, and all of these people who've been displaced in a terrible, terrible humanitarian situation. And the constant warning of famine inside of Gaza, that's the reality. Very hard to talk about two-state solution when the horror of what's unfolding in Gaza is continuing.

MCMAHON:
And I should note we just published on our website a primer on the Palestinian governance issue such as it is right now, and how complicated a thicket that is and was before October 7th, and really raising questions about what Palestinian entity could possibly emerge in any timeframe that lessens the tensions in the area.

ROBBINS:
Well, listen, responsible statecraft one would hope that the State Department and the administration is thinking about what happens afterwards, and considering what governance is going to look like afterwards. It would be irresponsible not to do it. But I think the reality of it is that the war has to end. 

So Bob, let's shift to what I would hope would be a happier topic, but it's not. Let's shift to Sudan, and the conflict between the Sudanese armed forces, and the Rapid Support Forces as the SAF and the RSF, which began in April of last year, entered its ninth month on Monday. And more than 7.4 million Sudanese people have been displaced since this fighting began. About twenty-five million people, fourteen million of whom are children, are in desperate need of humanitarian assistance. Is anything being done to mitigate this crisis? And can the Sudanese people turn to anybody for help?

MCMAHON:
Well, we had entered this year with some little glimmer of potentially diplomatic momentum Carla. And in fact, today, Thursday was supposed to be a day for a new round of diplomacy convened by this regional group in East Africa known as IGAD, I-G-A-D. That was going to bring together the heads of the two warring sides, the leader of the RSF, or the Rapid Support Forces known as Hemedti, as well as General al-Burhan who heads up the military led vestiges of the government in Sudan. But the government, the foreign ministry that is under the sway of the military stepped up just a few days ago, and said, "This cannot happen. This is a violation of the sovereignty of Sudan to even invite this dangerous leader of the RSF." And it seemed to have been an effort towards getting the principal two protagonists in the room together with regional body convening talks on it. First of all, a ceasefire, and then some path, and some off-ramp to the fighting has instead devolved. And we're left with a situation in which Sudan gets worse and worse. 

And what a number of watchers of Sudan have said is that, first of all, back to your question Carla, there's a problem of neglect going on. And let's face it. With the Middle East alone, what you were just talking about, that's occupying full tilt a lot of certainly major powers as well as countries in the region. But Sudan is for the reasons you cited, and the numbers you cited is bad and getting much, much worse. So six hundred thousand people just in the past month have been displaced. And that adds to overall figures of 7.4 million displaced, which is a good six million of those are within the country. Almost one and a half million have fled the country. That has regional impacts, obviously. Very precarious humanitarian situation, and a growing sense of lawlessness in the country.

The RSF forces have been steadily advancing, actually. There was a thought that Sudan might settle into a Libya type situation where you have this regional division of almost half the country. And it's a bit of a stalemate, and then things muddle ahead. But in fact, the RSF forces are gaining ground. They've captured in the last several weeks the second-largest city in the country after Khartoum. That's in the eastern part of the country, which had been under this sway of the military. The eastern and central part of the country is where most of the food is grown in Sudan, further raising alarm about what's going on there. The RSF forces have this pattern of when they take over an area, they practice the longstanding raping and pillaging literally that we've seen through the ages. There's ethnic cleansing that goes on. And the thought of the RSF gaining a sway over most of the country really sends chills through Sudanese, because they have antagonized the population. It's hard to imagine them running it even Taliban style. And it's not clear what are the options here. 

The peace process I mentioned through this Intergovernmental Authority on Development or IGAD, that again was seen as this new effort in addition to what had been the Saudi-U.S. effort known as the Jeddah Process to try to get something going, you have to have the principals willing to step up, and sit down, and talk and agree on an agenda for starters. That's not happening. And the humanitarian situation gets worse. The UN says a pittance of its humanitarian appeal for Sudan has been answered so far. And this is a country facing severe food shortages, if not famine. It's got a population in flight. It's got a population preyed upon by combatants. And it's got a world preoccupied with other matters that's not spending enough time focusing on it.

Our colleague, Michelle Gavin had posted about not only is the Sudan situation devolving, and requiring more attention, but Eastern Africa in general is in a bad way right now. You'd have unexpected new tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia over an Ethiopia moved to work with the breakaway Somaliland region for coastal access. And the problems go on and on. And the solutions seem to be few. And the will to reach an agreement seems to be receding. So it's a large chunk of Eastern Africa. Sudan, let's not forget, also borders the Red Sea, which we had just spoken about. And Port Sudan is still in under the control of the government forces, of the military forces I should say. But it's not clear how much longer that's going to be the case as well. So not a lot of options at the moment other than some international pressure to try to open up humanitarian corridors, Carla.

ROBBINS:
So what international pressure is there?

MCMAHON:
There have been U.S. efforts to sanction chief officials involved in the conflict. Sanctions can only go so far as we know, as we've talked about in many other contexts as well. Again, our colleague Michelle Gavin has pointed to the fact that United Arab Emirates, which is a prime backer of the RSF forces, really needs to be called to account for its role in Sudan, for really sustaining this, and playing basically what she says is, "A malign role in this all." So maybe it's influencing the influencers in this case, maybe the U.S. working on the UAE in some way to lessen its support. It's not clear to what extent, and to what leverage the U.S. has in that regard. But there seems to be a sense that the U.S. can do more. And it has an official that's in the region, that's been trying to work diplomatic angles. But the diplomatic angles aren't going anywhere. And it seems like it's more leverage is needed to come to bear. And what does that mean? That sanctions tends to be the first option, and a little bit of military show of force. The military is dealing with a few other things in the Red Sea at the moment.

ROBBINS:
So not for today, but I think we clearly need to take a closer look at the role the UAE is playing in all these different conflicts, because every time you look around, there they are. We're either condemning them, or relying on them. And their role is quite confusing to me. So let's mark that as something that we should be digging into.

MCMAHON:
It bears closer look, certainly Carla. 

Carla, I will be moving us onto a lighter topic however in the week ahead, because as listeners might know, you and I have a thing for films, and film festivals, and international films. And lo and behold, the Sundance Film Festival is going to be marking its fortieth anniversary, which really is remarkable. I recall there was this thing that used to happen, and Robert Redford would invite a few friends. And they'd show some movies in the Rockies, and ...

ROBBINS:
A few thousand friends, yeah.

MCMAHON:
A few thousand of his closest friends, and you'd get some indie movies would emerge from it. And it's had remarkable staying power. It's become a very important festival, Carla. But can you tell us what films we need to be looking out for at this point in time, 2024?

ROBBINS:
So this is billed as the largest independent film festival in the U.S., though independent's a relative term. It's filled with Hollywood insiders there, along with newcomers vying for insider attention. And the name of course is after Robert Redford's character in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. Redford has been the sponsor from the beginning as well, along with his Sundance Institute. And then in that time, it's brought attention to a lot of what were small films that made it big. Went and looked at the list. And just pulled out some of the ones that really I like, Garden State, American Psycho, El Mariachi, Sex, Lies and Videotape, Little Miss Sunshine, Thank You for Smoking, Napoleon Dynamite and Whiplash, which was voted number one in the festival's list of top ten films that made it big there. This is going to be the first in-person festival since the start of the pandemic. And there's also going to be online showing of most, but not all of the films.

And there are a host of differing must watch lists out there, which we have been pouring over. And sometimes this gig really is fun for us. So let's start with the foreign films and competition, because we're supposed to be looking at foreign things in this podcast. Brief History of a Family, I don't know a lot about Chinese movie making. So that drew my attention. It takes a look at the post one-child policy China, and a family takes in their single son. They only have one child's new friend to whom he, "feels a mysterious energetic pull, and hidden family tensions surface." Couldn't find a trailer for that. So that's all I could see about it. But as I said, I'm intrigued by the idea of Chinese cinema. 

There's something called Sujo, which is the story of the son of a Mexican cartel hitman who's orphaned at the age of four. And it looks at all the different stages of his life, and raises the question of whether he can escape his own father's violent destiny. And then there's Saoirse Ronan, who has something called The Outrun. She plays a recovering alcoholic, who comes home to the Orkney Islands in an attempt to get herself back together. And Ronan's last movie at Sundance was Brooklyn, which won her an Oscar the following year. So I've watched Saoirse Ronan in pretty much anything. So I think on the list of that, oh yeah. There's one more. I'm a Nordic noir freak. So I might sign onto this. Although I did find a trailer for this one. And it really looks creepy. And that's called Handling the Undead. It's a Norwegian movie.

MCMAHON:
So Nordic noir that looks creepy, Carla, I'm shocked. I'm shocked.

ROBBINS:
This is even creepier.

MCMAHON:
Okay.

ROBBINS:
And this tells the story of three families with recently deceased members who suddenly returned to life. And it stars Renate Reinsve and Anders Danielsen Lie from The Worst Person in the World. So those are the ones that drew my attention. On the domestic front, there's one very strange one that's getting a lot of buzz, something called Love Me. This is a sci-fi film. And it's about a satellite and a buoy who long after humans have gone extinct, meet online, and fall in love over web data, social media and online videos. And the satellite, I believe is played by Kristen Stewart. So she's always an indie favorite. 

There's also something called Exhibiting Forgiveness, which is directed by the painter Titus Kaphar. And it's a story about a Black artist whose life threatens to be completely knocked off course by the arrival of his father, who's a recovering addict, who wants to reconcile. This has a hugely strong cast. It's got Andre Holland, who played Kevin in Moonlight, and Andra Day, the R&B and Soul singer, and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor from When They See Us and Lovecraft Country. So just for the cast itself, as well as this extraordinary painter Titus Kaphar in his first feature film direction, that looks like one that definitely I want to see. A Real Pain, which is also in the U.S. Dramatic Competition, which is directed by Jesse Eisenberg, and it also stars along with Eisenberg, Kieran Culkin of Succession fame. And the two of them play mismatched cousins who take a road trip across Poland to explore the history of their family, which fled Europe to escape the Holocaust. To a certain extent, it does track Jesse Eisenberg's family. And it bills itself as both a comedy and a drama, which seems like a very challenging balance given the topic. 

And finally, there's a documentary going to my Argentine fascination called Gaucho Gaucho. And it's a documentary of Argentinian cowboys and cowgirls, which I think I'm probably going to want to see.

MCMAHON:
Wow, that's quite a lineup. Definitely piqued my interest. Also, I'm struck by, as we continue to dig in every week in the perilous geopolitical and democratic moment that we are all in, these are real departures. These are real ways of taking yourself off the grid, and just getting caught up in things, as you say, like Nordic noir, family dramas from China, or other personal tales. It's an interesting rundown. It's an interesting cross section of experiences to get lost in, which also matter obviously in life, but tends to get lost in the midst of all the geopolitics, and war, and everything.

ROBBINS:
Well, I will say that there are no rom-coms on this list here. So no Barbie either, but it is exciting to see just the variety of things that are brought. And you do know that everybody's going to be out there in Utah making big deals while dressed in their do people still wear fur?

MCMAHON:
Faux fur, Carla faux fur.

ROBBINS:
Out there making their deals. So Bob, it's time to discuss our Audience Figure of the Week. And this is the figure listeners vote on every Tuesday and Wednesday at cfr_org's Instagram story. And this week our audience selected, Eleven Nations Recognize Taiwan While Nauru cuts ties." Why did Nauru bail? And does it matter that Taiwan now only has official relations with eleven countries around the world?

MCMAHON:
Yes, and somewhat. We should note that when last we discussed Taiwan, we were talking ahead of the elections which went off successfully. More than 70 percent turnout, which is really strong. And puts countries like the U.S. to shame in terms of our typical turnout. But also, as we discussed, it was a robust three-person race for president. There was also legislative races. And William Lai as expected won. And while his party was not able to achieve a majority, it's going to have to work with other parties to pass some tough policies and things, which is in itself a balancing for the country. China was still pretty alarmed at the result, and took, I think great solace in Nauru's decision to unrecognize Taiwan. 

This is part of an ongoing effort by China to pick off all of the countries that recognize Taiwan, and in so doing, once and for all completely isolate Taiwan, and continue what it hopes is an inevitable inexorable path towards unification with the mainland. 

China's response has been somewhat guarded since the results. But it was quick to lash out at countries that were supportive of Taiwan, including the U.S., which in its response stressed it did not recognize Taiwanese independence, but nonetheless congratulated Mr. Lai and his victory. But also you had, as our colleague Josh Kurlantzick pointed out on cfr.org, you had countries like Japan and the Philippines with pretty strong robust notes of congratulations to the DPP candidate for winning, which brought an immediate rebuke from Beijing, and again, pointed out the concern that China has over any consideration of Taiwan as the separate entity, especially a thriving democratic separate entity so close to the mainland. Just the last couple of days, the first major Chinese military activity took place. Taiwan's officials said that something like eighteen Chinese Air Force planes operating around Taiwan carried out what were called joint combat readiness patrols along with Chinese warships. So that's a reminder that China's sending these messages that it's in the neighborhood, and it's not going anywhere, and Taiwan needs to be careful. 

But as I said, the vote brought in the KMT, the party that China would rather do business with was able to take fifty-two seats in the Parliament, one more than the DPP. And the Taiwan people's party, the TPP took eight. So potentially, there's a coalition there that can work together on legislation, and potentially balance out DPP politics. We don't know. But in terms of the overall geopolitics, one fewer country where Taiwanese officials can feel safe and welcome to visit is not a good thing. We've also noted previously China has tried to remove Taiwan from any involvement in agencies like the WHO, which was a real setback for a number of reasons, including that Taiwan had lots to contribute to global health efforts among other things. So geopolitics roaring back. Interesting vote in Taiwan. Not sure whether it's going to raise the bar too much on tensions though.

ROBBINS:
So just a few things. One, I just looked up. The population of Nauru is twelve thousand.

MCMAHON:
Okay.

ROBBINS:
And one wonders what the Chinese offered Nauru to bail. Second, I think your point about the Philippines and Japan is a really interesting one, because much like the United States, we don't have official relations with Taiwan. And I think there are a lot of countries who are playing this game in which they may not have diplomatic ties with Taiwan. And I think the breaking diplomatic ties does send a disheartening message to Taiwan. Same time, I think that a lot of countries are still talking to Taiwan. And they're not as isolated as that eleven sounds like.

MCMAHON:
Yeah. That's a good point, Carla. I would also note some countries, former communist countries in Eastern Europe, Czech Republic, Lithuania among others have been very straightforward in offering contacts, and some bit of economic relations with Taiwan, I believe, which has enraged China. So you're right. I think it goes beyond just the official recognition. But it continues to be a goal of China to shorten that list of formally recognized countries.

ROBBINS:
The Chinese do this all the time. It's like if countries that invite in the Dalai Lama, and then get whacked upside the head. And the Chinese, and certainly they're throwing their weight around in an enormous way at the UN, all places that we don't pay attention to, committees we don't pay attention to, meetings we don't show up at. Certainly the countries all over Latin America that complain that we're not showing up at meetings, that we're almost AWOL, and the Chinese are everywhere. And a big part of why they're everywhere is making sure that countries don't pay attention to Taiwan. They are absolutely punctilious about that.

And the Taiwanese are pretty vigilant about also pushing back. So this is a game that we're not paying enough attention to, both for our own interests, and for Taiwan's interests. But I don't think the Taiwanese are as isolated as those numbers would suggest. And I think anybody who looks at what happened in Hong Kong, and you look at the vibrancy of Taiwan's democracy, I think there's a real warning there as well that no one should be neglecting Taiwan's democracy. At the same time, I think our own ambiguous policy, given the reality of China's strength, is also one. So it's something that lots of countries have to make decisions about. But Taiwan's democracy certainly to be celebrated.

MCMAHON:
Yeah. And I think media experts are looking at the Taiwanese response to China's pretty heavy misinformation efforts, and to see what lessons could be gleaned from that, and as we continue this year of epic elections worldwide, and epic concerns over misinformation, AI, and everything else. 

Well, that's our look at the wild world next week. Here's some other stories to keep an eye on. The state of New Hampshire holds presidential primaries for Democratic and Republican candidates. Ursula von der Leyen and Finnish PM Petteri Orpo visit Sweden for talks on EU relations. And member states of The Group of 77, remember that, meet in Uganda for what's known as the Third South Summit.

ROBBINS:
Please subscribe to The World Next Week on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. And leave us a review while you're at it. We appreciate the feedback. Also, tell us if you see any of those movies, and what you think about them. If you'd like to reach out, please email us at twnw@cfr.org. The publications mentioned in this episode, as well as a transcript of our conversation or listed on the podcast page for The World Next Week on cfr.org. Please note that opinions expressed on The World Next Week are solely those of the hosts, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. 

Today's program was produced by Sinet Adous with Director of Podcasting Gabrielle Sierra, and engineered by Markus Zakaria. Special thanks to Molly McAnany for her assistance. Our theme music is provided by Markus Zakaria. And this is Carla Robbins saying so long.

MCMAHON:
And this is Bob McMahon saying goodbye. And be careful out there.