A return to penal populism will fail Ireland
Research from around the world shows mandatory minimum sentences fail to reduce crime, while causing significant problems in courts and prisons.
One of the most serious issues facing the new Taoiseach is the virulent populism rearing its head across national politics in Europe and beyond. This is a real threat, and Ireland has not proved immune to it thus far. Yet we would caution populism comes in many guises, including that of penal populism.
This approach aims to appeal to a seemingly common-sense desire for ‘more punishment’, in pursuit of electoral gain. Unfortunately, it flies in the face of decades of criminological research exploring how best to prevent and reduce crime.
In setting out a criminal justice policy stall in his first speech to the Dáil as Taoiseach, Simon Harris has drawn from this flavour of populism in proposing longer prison sentences for knife crime and higher minimum tariffs for life sentences.
Yet, the evidence does not suggest either policy will make society safer.
Mr Harris has suggested persons undergoing a life sentence should serve a minimum of 20, 30, or even 40 years before they are considered eligible for parole.
While this might get support from some of the more reactionary voices on the nation’s airwaves, research from around the world shows mandatory minimum sentences fail to reduce crime, while causing significant problems in courts and prisons.
Certainly, in Ireland, they are unnecessary given the recent overhaul of parole, not to mention Ireland’s ever-growing prison population.
Recently the Prison Officers Association called Ireland’s prison system a "ticking time bomb".
The prison population is at a record high, nearing 5,000 persons and exceeding the capacity of the prison estate by as much as 20% in some prisons.
Prison numbers are increasing for several reasons, including the use of longer sentences, the persistent use of damaging short-term sentences (less than 12 months) instead of community alternatives, more judges and court sittings, rising numbers of women being imprisoned for low level and nonviolent offences, and more people being remanded in custody prior to their conviction or sentencing.
Earlier this year, the Irish Penal Reform Trust highlighted Ireland’s "over-reliance" on prisons and emphasised prison expansion flies in the face of established Government policy.
Relying on imprisonment to address crime in our communities has consistently failed: the evidence does not suggest either increasing sentence severity or the use of imprisonment reduces crime.
Yet, despite a recent governmental commitment to expanding effective forms of community justice, Mr Harris is calling for the creation of more than 600 new prison spaces.
The Parole Act 2019 increased from seven to 12 years the period a person with a life sentence must spend in prison before becoming eligible to engage with the parole process.
In our very recent criminal justice history, Ireland has already ‘beefed up’ its restrictions on release.
In any case, the chances of being released after 12 years are effectively zero. The Parole Board’s annual report shows only two people were released at all in 2022, out of 22 applications for parole received.
Over the last decade, the average time a person served prior to release on parole was 20 years — and, of course, they can be recalled to prison at any time throughout their entire life (hence, ‘life sentence’).
Moreover, the Parole Board already takes into account many factors, including whether the person poses a danger to the public. Adding a further minimum tariff is window dressing.
Drawing on the work of Dr Diarmuid Griffin of the University of Galway, we know the Irish life-sentenced cohort is already very high, increasing 158% from 2001 to 2017.
Ireland places fifth in a comparison of Western Europe and the United States for the number of life-sentenced prisoners per capita. This is not a ranking of which we should be proud and comes despite Ireland having a very low murder rate by European standards.
The suggested minimum tariff is a further move towards mandatory sentencing, which decades of research demonstrate is not a deterrent.
It instead negatively impacts both prison population levels and overcrowding. In 2013, the Oireachtas Subcommittee on Penal Reform recommended a "decarceration strategy" to reduce the prison population by one-third over a decade.
In 2022, the Review of Policy Options for Prison and Penal Reform indicated a policy direction towards evidence-based forms of community justice, and away from a reliance on imprisonment.
Now, despite rising prisoner numbers, politicians are again taking the easy way out by playing the "law and order" card instead of carefully following the evidence.
The Taoiseach also pledged increased penalties for knife crime offences. In 2021, An Garda Síochána published data on the prevalence of ‘knife crime’ in Ireland, cautioning the term itself was vague and not legally defined.
Notably, incidents involving knives and knife-related hospitalisation were decreasing. Given so much knife crime involves young people carrying (not using) a knife motivated only by the fear it might be needed for self-defence, the last thing we want is for politicians to make our nation’s youth feel a need to take their protection into their own hands.
Meanwhile, legislative responses already exist in Ireland to deal with offences relating to knives. The maximum sentences are high compared with other jurisdictions, and using a knife in the commission of an offence is also considered as an aggravating factor by judges in sentencing. There is nothing stopping the judiciary from sentencing people appropriately for knife crime.
All the evidence suggests punitive ‘crackdowns’ on knife offences, such as increased use of stop and search and longer sentences, are ineffective.
Fortunately, we do know what works to reduce crime and violence, both through prevention and by reducing reoffending among those who have been caught. An intelligent approach to criminal justice policy would begin with this evidence.
Smart justice is evidence-based justice Investing in housing, health, education and policies to reduce inequality will do more to address harm in our communities than the populist policies that will cause further misery and worsen the current situation.
This is called a ‘public health approach’ to crime and violence and has been adopted in Scotland and other places where politicians are serious about making society safer.
Mr Harris has repeatedly stressed he believes in evidence-based approaches to crime prevention, rehabilitation and alternatives to prison, but these policy proposals run contrary to such claims.
Government must not engage in soundbite politics that promise policies which the evidence tells us will not achieve their stated aims and may even make the situation worse. Proposals must stand up to scrutiny and be abandoned when they do not.
- Lynsey Black, John F Morrison, Joe Garrihy, Rhiannon Bandiera, Megan Coghlan, Kevin H Wozniak and Etain Quigley are assistant professors at the School of Law and Criminology at Maynooth University
- Claire Hamilton is professor, Ian D Marder is assistant professor and co-deputy director and Ciara Bracken-Roche is assistant professor and co-deputy director at the School of Law and Criminology at Maynooth University
