Thousands of Georgians have been protesting for two weeks against a Russian-style draft law that will target civil society, accusing their government of sabotaging their country’s prospects of EU membership.
Western governments have spent billions supporting Georgian democracy and development since the 1990s. But this week Georgia’s leadership made a very public break with Brussels and Washington, accusing the West of trying to lure Georgia into war with Russia.
With the governing Georgian Dream (GD) Party hoping to secure a constitutional majority in an October general election, the decision to introduce this authoritarian legislation was a surprise: mass demonstrations last year forced the government to withdraw a similar bill. This second attempt has handed the opposition renewed energy and purpose.
The GD insists its law on foreign funding is similar to legislation in Western countries which promote greater transparency. In fact it looks like a page out of a Kremlin statute that has eliminated dissent in Russia.
In any case the GD’s daily rhetoric has demonstrated its intent: to stigmatise and criminalise US and EU-funded NGOs that highlight government corruption and abuses of power.
Who are the protesters?
Parliament, which is debating the bill, has become the locus for thousands of peaceful protesters in the capital Tbilisi. They’re a broad church of pro-European liberals, from students to moped delivery riders. Opposition politicians are seen facing down the “robocops” in riot gear, but Gen Z organisers have made it clear grandstanding isn’t welcome.
That’s because the country remains deeply polarised over its Rose Revolution legacy. Mikheil Saakashvili, whose reforms did much to modernise Georgia after 2004, languishes in jail.
While his United National Movement remains the most powerful party in opposition it is deeply unpopular with a wide swathe of voters due to its own authoritarian record in office.
The GD, which came to power 11 years ago, enjoyed broad public support for a time. It took credit for winning a visa-free regime to the EU and, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it submitted its application for EU candidacy.
But its claim of being a European and NATO partner lacks integrity. Western leaders have repeatedly called on it to change course and enact reforms that include ‘de-oligarchisation’.
That is unacceptable to the oligarch in question, Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of GD, and now more clearly than ever the country’s de facto leader despite not holding official office.
He was the last man to address tens of thousands of tired and largely apathetic public sector workers bussed in from the regions to attend a counter-rally on Monday.
In a firebrand conspiracist’s speech he referred to a global force (read the West) that had stripped Georgia of its sovereignty and was responsible for the war between Georgia and Russia in 2008 and for endangering Ukraine today.
What’s next?
The crowds braving the tear gas, water cannon and pepper spray in downtown Tbilisi are incensed by a craven elite of “Russebos” deferring to the Kremlin. Anti-Russian graffiti is everywhere and the hatred is visceral.
It is hard to dismiss the notion that an oligarch who is determined to cement his grip on power, may also have been arm-twisted by the Kremlin to show loyalty. Ivanishvili made his money in Russia.
Putin could paralyse Georgia within hours. His military bases in occupied South Ossetia are a few kilometres from the country’s main highway. Few believe NATO members would be willing to come to Georgia’s aid.
Aided by an increasingly brutal black clad riot police, GD looks set to pass its law with a comfortable majority. The risk of a violent and dramatic showdown grows by the day.