Penn State hasn’t had three or more players selected in the first round of the NFL draft since 2003 when Jimmy Kennedy, Michael Haynes, Bryant Johnson and Larry Johnson heard their names called. The Nittany Lions could match that first-round output this time next year.
The 2025 NFL draft is a ways away. But earlier this week, we looked at who could encompass a banner draft class for James Franklin’s program. Now, we’re taking a closer look at who might land in the first round next year, according to a collection of way-too-early mock drafts.
The team landing spot isn’t as important; draft orders were based on reverse Super Bowl odds from various major sportsbooks. But a few Nittany Lions are worth discussing.
Abdul Carter
Carter, the explosive All-Big Ten linebacker, moved to defensive end this offseason. The junior said he initiated the switch in order to “do what I do best and get paid.” Carter’s best attribute is undoubtedly his ability to get after the quarterback. And he will get paid for that.
Carter has been the Penn State player most consistently showing up in early mock drafts, and it’s easy to understand why. He led the team with 6 1/2 sacks as a true freshman in 2022 and added 4 1/2 sacks last year as a sophomore. Now, the 6-foot-3, 250-pound star is shedding his linebacker responsibilities and focusing solely on disrupting backfields off the edge.
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler projected Carter to go No. 7 overall to the Arizona Cardinals. ESPN’s Jordan Reid had him going No. 9 overall to the New Orleans Saints. Pro Football Focus projected him to go No. 22 overall to the Atlanta Falcons.
“Watching the Penn State defensive prospects last season, Carter was clearly the star for a front seven that produced multiple top-100 picks,” Brugler wrote. “... Early warning: the Micah Parsons comparisons will be rampant.”
Dani Dennis-Sutton
Carter’s counterpart at defensive end is also a possible first-round prospect. Dennis-Sutton, a former five-star prospect, looks the part entering his junior season at 6-foot-5, 270 pounds. He’s also been an impact player despite playing behind Chop Robinson and Adisa Isaac.
Dennis-Sutton has appeared in all 26 games since arriving at Penn State. He was an ESPN True Freshman All-American in 2022 and a third-team All-Big Ten pick last year. Dennis-Sutton, despite starting only three games in 2023, had six TFLs, 3 1/2 sacks and two forced fumbles.
Reid, who projected Dennis-Sutton to the Eagles at No. 25 overall, noted that his “draft stock is still very much a projection, but he has all the tools to make a major leap in 2024.” Brugler, who had him going No. 26 to the Houston Texas, wrote: “Dennis-Sutton is a long, active edge rusher who can get himself in the first-round discussion with a strong year.”
Kevin Winston Jr.
Unlike edge rusher, a premium position in the NFL, it’s difficult for safeties to crack the first round. In the last five drafts, there have been only three first-round safeties. But Winston is talented enough to buck the trend.
Winston enters the 2024 season as one of the top safeties in the country. He led the Nittany Lions in tackles, was solid in coverage and still has room to grow after taking the first-team reins in 2023. PFF’s Max Chadwick and Dalton Wasserman projected Winston to go No. 15 overall to the Los Angeles Rams.
“Winston is as sure of a tackler as they come, as his 2% missed tackle rate ranked second among all college football safeties,” PFF wrote. “He also was the only FBS safety with 85.0-plus grades in coverage and run defense.”
Drew Allar
First-round mock drafts 11 months away from the actual draft are significant projections, even in the case of Carter. But Allar might be the biggest projection out there.
We know Allar has superb talent. He has a cannon arm. He has the prototypical size at 6-foot-5, 241 pounds that NFL teams want to see. He was a five-star prospect for a reason. But we haven’t seen his skillset showcased on a consistent basis.
There were flashes of brilliance from Allar last year. The West Virginia season opener was a hell of an intro. He made tight-window throws that few quarterbacks can make. And he took care of the ball; his 25 touchdowns and two interceptions was the best ratio in the FBS. He also underperformed against Ohio State and Michigan and operated all season in an uninspired offense that both refused and failed to push the ball downfield.
Allar was mocked to the Steelers at No. 19 overall by The 33rd Team and to the New York Jets at No. 20 by the Associated Press’ Ralph Russo. Neither Brugler nor Reid included Allar.
It’s anyone’s guess how Allar’s 2024 season, working in Andy Kotelnicki’s new offense, will unfold. He could emerge as one of the top quarterbacks in the 2025 class. He could also be back for his senior season. We’ll find out which option is more likely in the fall.