Auburn’s postseason hopes are on life support. What’s the SEC Tournament path?

Auburn, AL - 20240503 - Auburn Tigers Baseball vs. Ole Miss Rebels

AUBURN, AL - MAY 03 - Auburn Outfielder Cade Belyeu (14) during the game between the Auburn Tigers and the Ole Miss Rebels at Plainsman Park in Auburn, AL on Friday, May 3, 2024. Photo by David Gray/Auburn TigersDavid Gray/Auburn Tigers

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With a wild walk-off win Sunday over Ole Miss, Auburn baseball kept its postseason bid alive, for now.

In a disappointing baseball season, Auburn is down to its final chance to make the SEC Tournament with two conference series to play. The last time Auburn missed the SEC Tournament was in 2016, head coach Butch Thompson’s first season at Auburn where the program had a record 22 SEC losses.

With six SEC games left, Auburn has a 4-20 record. The top 12 teams go to the SEC Tournament in Hoover and, at this point, Auburn is dead last.

But there is still a chance. A really, really small chance, but a chance indeed.

So, what’s Auburn’s path?

It’s quite simple, actually: Auburn has to win out, then get some help.

If Auburn loses any of its remaining six SEC games (three at Missouri, three vs. Alabama at home) they’re eliminated. Missouri is currently the other team to miss the SEC Tournament along with Auburn and Alabama is 10-14 currently in SEC play.

Winning each of the remaining six games gives Auburn 10 SEC wins. The worst record currently in the top 12 is a tie between Ole Miss and LSU, which each have nine wins. Auburn must get to 10 because it loses head-to-head tiebreakers against both Ole Miss and LSU.

But Auburn winning out alone is not enough. One of LSU or Ole Miss must also lose out.

LSU is surging after a series win at home against then-No. 1 Texas A&M and will now travel to face Alabama in Tuscaloosa this weekend. Ole Miss will host now-No. 3 Texas A&M at home this weekend.

LSU and Ole Miss will face each other in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, the following weekend to close the season.

Even if Auburn wins each of its six remaining games, it will be eliminated by any combination of one Ole Miss win and one LSU win.

Given its slog through SEC play, Auburn would be highly unlikely to receive an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Auburn’s best chance, and probably only chance, to make the NCAA Tournament would be managing to make the SEC Tournament and then going on to win the tournament to get the SEC’s automatic bid.

Matt Cohen covers Auburn sports for AL.com. You can follow him on X at @Matt_Cohen_ or email him at mcohen@al.com

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